Reykjavík Grapevine - 22.05.2015, Blaðsíða 12

We asked a few local security pundits
what kind of terrorist threat we could
be facing here in Iceland, to help get a
better idea of what this means.
Is extremism on the
rise?
According to the European Union’s
law enforcement agency, Europol, the
threat level in Europe is growing, and
it has not been this high in Europe
since the 9/11 attacks in the US. Still,
in the age of the 24-hour news cycle,
it is important to question how much
extremist violence is growing—and
how much it seems to be the case due
to the media’s fixation on tragedy
(irony: noted). When asked if they
think extremism is becoming more
of an issue in Europe and in Iceland
specifically, our sources gave mixed
responses.
“The fixation of some politicians
and media on extremism, especially
Islamic extremism, is out of propor-
tion and politically motivated,” said
Stefán Pálsson, the chairman of Sam-
tök Hernaðarandstæðinga, an Ice-
landic pacifist society. Independence
Party MP Ásmundur Friðriksson took
an opposing view. “There’s certainly
a growing threat of terrorism in Eu-
rope, as the examples show. It’s im-
portant that we pay close attention
and stay alert regarding our own se-
curity,” he said.
“It’s definitely becoming more
of an issue,” said Pirate Party MP
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson, finding the
middle ground, “but the reactions to
it scare me much more than the ter-
rorism itself.” When it comes to ter-
rorism, he said, there’s a tendency
to panic: “It’s not something that we
should be panicking over, it’s some-
thing we should be dealing with like
crime.”
For former NATO advisor Chris
Jagger, whether extremism is on
the rise is beside the point. “Those
charged with the responsibility of
keeping us safe are, unfortunately,
overwhelmed with leads of potential
terrorists,” he said. “The simple fact
is that the resources do not match the
threat.”
Are the police prepared
for an act of terrorism in
Iceland?
If extremism is in fact on the rise, are the
Icelandic police prepared to handle an
attack like the ones in Paris or Copenha-
gen? Ásmundur thinks not, and has been
making his opinion on Islamic extrem-
ism clear. In fifteen hardly reassuring
words @logreglan wrote via Twitter,
“the police do everything they can to
be prepared for any situation that may
arise.”
Stefán and Helgi gave very similar
answers. Neither one thinks any country
can be adequately prepared for random
acts of terrorism, and both expressed
concerns over moving towards “dys-
topian fascist societies” or “1984” in a
pursuit of total freedom from terrorism.
“We will always have some form of ter-
rorism,” Helgi said. “I don’t know at what
time it became reasonable to expect ter-
rorism to just go away forever. I don’t re-
member a time without terrorism. I don’t
think it ever existed, and I don’t think it
ever will.” The National Commissioner’s
report expresses a need for increased in-
vestigative powers when it comes to mat-
ters of terrorism and organised crime,
giving Stefán and Helgi’s fear a bit more
weight.
What are the best steps
to prevent terrorist or
extremist violence in
Iceland?
The National Commissioner’s report
suggests the following precautions: leg-
islation on increased police investiga-
tive powers; legislation on prohibition of
travel by foreign terrorist fighters; more
officers, experts and equipment; the
creation of a special unit to combat ter-
rorism; information sharing between po-
lice, social and health workers regarding
individuals who may pose a threat; and a
social resource for those exposed to radi-
calisation.
When we asked our experts about
the best steps to prevent extremist vio-
lence in Iceland, the responses were a
bit less STASI. “Perhaps below the radar
of public perception, progress is being
made across Europe in leaps and bounds
towards reducing the threat from ter-
rorism,” Chris said, noting that de-radi-
calisation of potential terrorists after an
early arrest has already proved highly
successful in the UK. He also noted the
importance of the authorities keeping
the public involved. “From my experi-
ence prevention almost always starts
with good public co-operation,” he said.
Somewhat ironically, on this topic,
the Independence Party MP looked to
Europe for the answer, while the left-
leaning pacifist took an isolationist
stance. “It seems natural that the police
have the tools and legislation that are
considered normal in the neighbouring
countries that we want to compare our-
selves to,” Ásmundur said, in contrast
to Stefán, who indicated that Iceland is
simply too small and insignificant to be
a plausible target. “How small and far-
flung Iceland is from the rest of Europe
almost by definition makes the idea of a
major terrorist attack in Iceland highly
unlikely,” Stefán said.
Helgi said that while serious tools are
needed to combat serious crimes there is
a tendency to sacrifice civil rights and lib-
erties in the pursuit of security. “If liberal
democracies intend to remain liberal de-
mocracies, they will have to bloody well
live with the fact that we live in an unsafe
world. We cannot have both security and
liberty at the same time, there never was
a time when we did. We shouldn’t act as if
that’s possible because the moment that
we do, we will lose one, if not both.”
Why aren’t Icelanders
running away to the Is-
lamic State?
Over the past year there have been re-
ports of Europeans and North Americans
leaving their home countries and joining
the Islamic State. This does not seem to
be happening in Iceland, but Ásmundur
and Helgi both questioned whether we
would actually know if any Icelanders
had sought to join IS. Chris agreed that it
is hard to say for certain that no Icelander
has joined IS or has any connections to it.
That being said, he believes it’s unlikely
because there has not been an indica-
tion of sympathies towards the cause in
Iceland.
Stefán suggested it’s because Iceland
does not operate a military. “Armies
come with glorification of militarism and
ill-judged optimism towards warfare,”
he said. “The bigger the role of the mili-
tary in society, the more young people
will be drawn to that lifestyle—and are
thus more likely to pursue a career as
mercenaries or radical militants.”
Based on their research, the National
Commissioner reports that most people
who join the Islamic State are young sec-
ond and third genera-
tion immigrants who
are looking for social
recognition. Helgi sees
this marginalisation
as the fault of West-
ern democracies that
force assimilation out
of fear that their societ-
ies might become less
“French” or “German,”
for example. “We are
an international com-
munity, multicultural-
ism is not optional. The
only question is how
you deal with it. And I
submit you should start
by acknowledging it.
Stop pretending as if
we have a choice.”
Chris sees all this
as a common myth that
needs to be corrected.
“It is wrong to think
that only marginalised
young males are join-
ing Islamic State,” he
said. “It seems that
individuals from all
walks of life are ca-
pable of demonstrat-
ing everything from
sympathy to the aims
and objectives of the
Islamic State on one
end of the spectrum to
giving their lives on the
other to the cause on
the other.”
Should the Icelandic
police be armed?
After the police were forced to return
their “gifts” to Norway in November, it
is clear where most Icelanders stand on
police weaponry. When asked if the Ice-
landic police should be armed, Stefán
clearly stated that they are more than
sufficiently armed as it is.
In a response to a question posed by
Left-Green MP Katrín Jakobsdóttir, the
Interior Ministry reported that the po-
lice have 590 guns, which seemed more
than sufficient until the National Com-
missioner reported that there are 72,000
registered firearms in the country and
“the number of unregistered weapons is
unknown.”
“They certainly shouldn’t be armed
in their everyday tasks, absolutely not,”
Helgi said, “it causes more problems than
it solves.” Chris was sceptical that more
guns would act as a deterrent. “As the
event in France demonstrated, protect-
ing vulnerable people and property is not
always achieved using weapons,” he said.
“The ideal position for a security agency
is to prevent an attack well before its in-
tended date; to do so
normally requires so-
phisticated intelligence
gathering operations.”
The National
Commissioner used
similar reasoning in
their recommendation
for pre-emptive inves-
tigative powers for the
Icelandic police. Ice-
land’s neighbours have
enacted such legisla-
tion in the past, but the
Icelandic Parliament
has repeatedly rejected
the idea. The police ar-
gue that without such
powers, they cannot
investigate and pre-
vent terror plots in the
making, but can only
respond to acts after it’s
too late. As Helgi and
Stefán argue, when the
authorities are given
the power to investi-
gate individuals who
have not yet committed
a crime, society walks a
fine line between civil
liberties and security.
Róbert R. Spanó,
an Icelandic-Italian
judge at the Euro-
pean Court of Human
Rights, has argued that
pre-emptive investiga-
tive powers may, unfor-
tunately, be necessary
to combat terrorism and modern forms
of organised crime. However, if they are
introduced, it is imperative that they
are accompanied by strict regulations
and oversight. The Pirate Party believes
that oversight is already needed, propos-
ing legislation for an independent police
oversight committee to Parliament last
month. Perhaps this will lay the ground-
work for better and more responsible po-
lice investigations.
Are we safe?
The National Commissioner’s report
places Iceland under a moderate threat
level, meaning that however unlikely a
terrorist attack may be, it is impossible to
exclude the possibility of one. “In my ex-
perience,” Chris Jagger said, “there is no
such thing as total security.” So, a moder-
ate threat level may be the best one could
hope for. In the mean time, it seems the
most conclusive answer is: we are not un-
safe. Ásmundur put it simply: he feels safe
in his everyday life as an Icelander, “but
nevertheless, we have to have a discus-
sion about the problem.”
In a world of terror and violence it’s nice to live in Iceland,
where 70% of all crimes committed are traffic offences.
Still, last winter’s incidents in Paris and Copenhagen hit
a little closer to home than we may like. A February re-
port by the National Commissioner of the Icelandic Po-
lice declared that “uncertainty about the terrorist threat
is growing in Iceland and the other Nordic countries,”
and that here in Iceland, “generally speaking, it is not
possible to exclude the risk of terrorism.”
Words by Anna Manning
Photo by Anna Manning
A Terrorist
Threat
In Iceland?!
We investigate…
12 The Reykjavík GrapevineIssue 6 — 2015
Iceland | Safe?
Our
Informants
Chris Jagger
Chris worked at the London Met-
ropolitan Police, New Scotland
Yard, and the British National
Criminal Intelligence Service,
before becoming a United Na-
tions Head of Military Liaison,
a NATO Advisor on Organised
Crime, Border and Maritime
Security and a NATO Director of
National Security Vetting.
Stefán Pálsson
Stefán is the chairman of Samtök
Hernaðarandstæðinga, an Ice-
landic pacifist society.
Ásmundur Friðriksson
Ásmundur is an Independence
Party MP who has become
known for taking a hard line
against possible Islamist threats.
Helgi Hrafn Gunnarsson
Helgi is a Pirate Party MP, and
has been vocal about making
sure the Icelandic police remain
accountable.