Reykjavík Grapevine - 01.02.2019, Qupperneq 12

Iceland’s weather over the last year
has been strange, to put it mildly. It
has essentially been one long season—
winter—with 2018 being the cloudiest
and wettest on record. These odd condi-
tions and an alarming report from the
United Nations’ InterGovernmental
Panel on Climate Change have added
difficult questions to the contentious
debate around the environment and
natural resources in Iceland. Fisheries,
tourism and power plants have been
debated ad nauseam in Iceland, and
climate change is adding a difficult and
urgent dimension to the debate.
Heat Storm
This winter has been unusually mild,
with nearly the same temperatures
and precipitation patterns as the cold
summer months that preceded it.
Lightning struck downtown Reykjavík
in December, which is a rare event, even
in summer. There has been such little
snowfall that ski slopes were closed well
into January. The workers and compa-
nies went without income. In addition
to skiing, snowfall also replenishes
glaciers which are a big draw for tour-
ists. Many tourists hope for a winter
wonderland when booking a trip to
Iceland, especially around Christmas.
This year though, they were treated to
grey skies during the few daily hours
of daylight. It was not unusual to see
Icelanders in light summer clothing
next to bundled up travellers. We are
used to being comparatively under-
dressed in the summer but we like to
hide our Christmas kilos under sweat-
ers, too.
This strange season coincided with
the IPCC’s latest report on climate
change, containing projections so dire
they should make you sweat—even in
inclement weather.
Growing Pains
The changing climate is adding to the
strained tourism environment. The
number of tourists to Iceland has quad-
rupled in less than a decade, but the
state has failed to regulate and invest
in infrastructure, and industry has
little coordination or long-term plan-
ning. Sensitive ecosystems have been
damaged, garbage piles up, and tour-
ists die needlessly. The state and indus-
try have been debating who should be
responsible for providing garbage and
toilet facilities. Sensitive mosses and
safe hiking trails are not always prop-
erly marked, resulting in damage that
takes decades to recover.
Growth in tourist numbers has
slowed significantly over the last year,
which could be an opportunity for the
infrastructure to catch up. The coalition
government formed in 2017 promised
to conduct studies and laid out broad
goals. The coalition agreement foresees
investment in infrastructure, sustaina-
bility, and a focus on the distribution of
tourists throughout the country. Grants
have been made to rural communities
and the VAT increase delayed.
Under the Glacier
Glacial retreat is more than an aesthetic
loss. Their mass is so great that they
reduce volcanic eruptions and earth-
quakes. In addition to inflicting local
damage, increased eruptions would
release more greenhouse gasses. In
2010, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption
disrupted flights in Europe for weeks.
That eruption planted the idea of visit-
ing Iceland in many travellers’ minds,
but another similar eruption could cut
the island off from tourists and the
economic boost they bring to the coun-
try.
As glaciers retreat, eruptions are
more likely to
o c c u r. S c i e n -
tists believe all
glaciers could
gone in less than
t w o h u n d r e d
years. Glaciers
are the source
of freshwater for Iceland’s rivers, and
their disappearance would impact fish-
ing, and other recreational activities.
Furthermore, Iceland produces
most of its power from hydroelectric
and geothermal power stations. Melt-
ing glaciers could lower water levels
in reservoirs and disrupt geothermal
vents through earthquakes.
Thanks for all the fish
Another potential economic victim
of climate change is one of Iceland’s
historically major industries: fisheries.
After a series unilateral extensions
to its exclusive economic zone—Google
“cod wars”—Iceland controlled some of
lucrative fisheries in the world. These
were mismanaged for decades and
nearly collapsed, but are now run is a
more sustainable manner and serve as
a model to other countries.
Warmer waters have historically
meant an increase in fish stocks, but
the temperatures increasing in tandem
with marine pollution and acidification
is destroying maritime ecosystems.
The current government is empha-
sising sustainable quotas, a fair share of
revenue for the state, and investments
in research and technology that will
make the fishing fleet carbon neutral.
Opportunity Cost
Not everyone sees climate change as a
lose-lose scenario for Iceland. Pundits
and politicians have floated the idea of
the country being a shipping hub for
emerging trade routes across the Arctic
Ocean.
The ruling coalition has generally
been reluctant to take bold action but
has made some moves on environ-
mental and tourist issues. The state
will transition to electric vehicles in
its next order,
and is making
strides to acceler-
ate reforestation
programmes. But
the cabinet has
only been in office
for little over a
year, and Iceland’s parliament has in
recent years earned a reputation as a
revolving door. This disrupts complex
policies, which can take years to formu-
late and enact.
The current minister of environ-
ment is a lifelong activist, and spoke
forcefully about the need for bold action
at a recent environmental conference in
Poland. But how the Minister’s intent
will translate into policy remains to
be seen. The complexities of Iceland’s
coalition government system have
stopped good intentions many times
before.
Words:
Kolbeinn Arnaldur
Dalrymple
Photo:
Art Bicnick
Weathering
the Climate
Iceland’s economic challenges in the era of global warming
Weather: it's very big. And very wet.
12 The Reykjavík GrapevineIssue 02— 2019
“The changing
climate is adding to
the strained tourism
environment.”