Tölvumál - 01.06.1982, Blaðsíða 6

6
TÖLVUMÁL
In terms of technology the possibilities
look promising. But if we look at it from
a geographical angle there is a risk that
Europe in future will play a still minor
role. Not in terms of using the new tech-
nology - we may buy till we have nothing
left - but in terms of being able of to
take part ourselves in the development
and production - that's were we lack be-
hind.
We see the enormous competition between
the USA, Japan and partly Western Europe.
A fight on work capacity and know-how with-
in our sphere - the most expansive ever.
Look at the USA and the way they have ob-
tained a leading position due to the un-
believable development programs. The pos-
sibility for new industries to grow up
are there. With great sacrifices Japan
tries to reach the Americans.
We have seen excellent take offs and lan-
dings of American space ships. These were
the result of a development program worth
6 billion $. Only a very small part of
this amount is put in material. The far
greater part is used for salaries. Young
Americans have received an education in
the new technology - a technology, where
the development of new electronic systems
play a great part.
One of the most important products in the
development to have more and more influ-
ence are the micro processors. The micro
processor may be defined as an integrated
electronic circuit having more than 10.000
transistors on a tiny chip, the size of
of 10-20 mm2. (square milimiters)
The first integrated circuits ever were
developed in 1958 and since it has been
possible vertially each year to double
the number of components on a chip. And
the price has decreased proportionally.
A lot has happened as far as prices and
calculation speed are concerned. In the
course of a 15 year period costs for stor-
ing 1 million caracters in current prices
have dropped to 2?. At the same time the
real counting procedure has increased with
a factor of more than 100 expressed by
the number of multiplications per second.
The volume to be used for the storing of
a similar fast memory has dropped with
a factor of more than 10,000, still mea-
sured over a 15 year period.
There is no sign that this development
will cease within the next 5-10 years.
We will have less expensive, still faster
and again smaller calculation units. No
other sector in the world has seen a si-
milar economic development.
Had a similar development taken place with-
in the housing sector we would have been
able to build one-family-houses at a price
of 100 $ and the yearly energy costs would
have been around a dime.The daily transport-
ation could be done in a Rolls Royce. Price
1 $.
Try to imagine how our daily life would
have changed under these conditions!
The spreading of the new technology im-
plies three elements:
a high educational standard,
an improved infra structure, and
an advanced industry.
A widespread use of electronic data pro-
cessing demands a high educational stan-
dard - in all areas. There has been a ten-
dency to forget the users and the problems
this lead to.
The other demand for a spreading of new
technology is an improved infra structu-
re, namely the establishment of communicat-
ions networks and centres ,in this respect.
It may be telephone nets, data nets or
microwave and satellite systems. At the
end of this decade a substantial part of
our telephone calls will be in a digita-
lized form.
The third precondition for the spreading
of new technology is an advanced industry.
We must face it that virtually all advanc-
ed design of electronic hardware - and
in particular the future computers - will
be in the world of chips.
If we wish to retain our ability to develop
new products, which are competitive both
in software and hardware, we are forced
to be able to cope with the chips design
work.
This is where the Nordic activities have
possibilities, because knowledge is an
important element.
On the contrary it is far more difficult
to go into production itself, and this
service can be bought. Today a series of
semiconductors manufacturers, in parti-
cular in the US, are available. A compu-
tertape with all the design information
is all they need.
Your own design of circuits is an advan-
tage, although a production of our own
is hardly possible.
Lets have a look at the market .. .
The slide shows that the Future Office
has a major part in the expected explosive
growth from 29 billion $ in 1980 to 63
billion $ in 1985. Even a reduction from
83? to 36? leaves something for the main-
framers market, namely from 17 to 23 bil-
lion $. In this respect it is interest-
ing to see IBM and the companies compa-
tible with IBM taking a still growing part
of the market. A smaller and smaller part
is left for the remaining 5 dwarfs from
"Snow white and the Seven Dwarfs", RCA,
General Electric, etc.
No doubt about it, IBM is growing fast
and has the leading role in the chase for
the computer market. However, the dominat-
ing part from the beginning of the 70'es
when the competition to a very large ex-
tend was only seen from the Dwarfs, is
changing in a radical way. A number of
companies within the mini and micro field
are steadily getting stronger and doing
their share to deminish the gab between
IBM and themselves.
While, in 1976, it took 52 of the most
close competitors to make up for the IBM
turnover on the US market, only 15 companies
are necessary to make up for it today.