Reykjavík Grapevine - 12.01.2007, Blaðsíða 10

10_REYKJAVÍK_GRAPEVINE_ISSUE 01_007_INTERVIEW/GLOBAL WARMING
Discussing the impact of global warming
from the perspective of environmental plan-
ning with Trausti Valsson
“It seemed that whenever I wanted to dis-
cuss global warming, people would start dis-
cussing weather changes, or changes in veg-
etation,” says Trausti Valsson, a professor of
planning at the University of Iceland. Valsson
has recently published a book called How the
World Will Change with Global Warming. “I
am a planner, and I wanted to do see what
this meant from the perspective of environ-
mental planning,” Valsson says about his
book.
There is an increasing agreement among
scientists that global warming will force ma-
jor changes in our way of life. According to
the most pessimistic predictions, it is a crisis
of apocalyptic proportions. Floods, droughts,
hurricanes and other climate-induced di-
sasters will ravage the planet, making large
parts of it uninhabitable. Others remain
sceptical towards the extent of the effects,
and although no one has yet been able to
demonstrate with accuracy what specifically
those effects will be, the general consensus
is that something is about to change. Says
Valsson: “We are likely to see droughts in ar-
eas that had plenty of water a few years ago,
while other areas, such as Central and East-
ern Europe will experience much more rain
and flooding, a good example is the flooding
of Prague, three years ago.”
The field of environmental planning will
be greatly affected by global warming and
surprisingly little has been published on the
subject. “As an environmental planner, my
work consists of gathering all sorts of data
from various scientific fields and incorporating
that data into environmental planning. There
was a time when natural conditions were not
given such a high priority in environmental
planning. Now, the goal is to design with na-
ture,” He explains when asked what prompt-
ed him to write the book, and continues:
“When an area is under development, the
first step is to contact a meteorologist to ask
for a report on meteorological data for the
area. Then you ask geologists to supply data
for the area’s geology. All this data is then
mapped out and you make a decision on
where roads should be built, where schools
should be placed, etc. based on that data,”
Valsson explains. “In the book, I try to take
the same approach, except I am doing it on a
meta-scale.”
The problem with this approach is that
the data is mostly based on empirical evi-
dence gathered in the past, while the ef-
fects of global warming are still mostly in the
future, and therefore, a little less empirical.
The book is mostly based on a recent report
by the Arctic Council and the International
Arctic Science Committee, called the ACIA
report (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Report).
Fundamental Changes
Valsson’s interest in climate change was
first sparked during his Ph.D. studies at UC
Berkeley during the mid-eighties. A pro-
fessor pointed out that changes in climate
might lead to changes in sea level. Valsson
has been examining the possibility since.
“Climate change will alter some of the
founding principles of planning, not only
globally, but also locally,” Valsson states.
There are areas in downtown Reykjavík that
are extremely vulnerable to the rising sea
level and it is likely that sea will flood some
parts of the city on high tides. As the climate
gets warmer, more energy builds up in the
aerospace, resulting in more energy in the
weather, higher wind speeds and more evap-
oration, causing more rain. “When planning
and developing areas near the coastline, this
should be taken into account. It is necessary
to build flood levees and harbour construc-
tions higher than is commonly done have
been doing, as scientists predict that the sea
level will rise anywhere from 50-90 centime-
tres in this century,” Valsson offers. In Ice-
land, some of these precautionary steps have
already been taken. According to recent reg-
ulation changes, harbour construction must
now be built 50 cm higher above sea level
than previous requirements.
Bridging the Gap
Frequently, meteorologists and natural scien-
tists warn us about climate change and how
it will affect different groups. Mostly, these
warnings are directed at politicians. “In some
ways, I am trying to bridge the gap between
these two sides,” Valsson says. “I am trying
to put this vision in plain terms and show
what the effects will be. It will help politi-
cians and policymakers to make plans for
the future, such as where to build roads or
where to build levees.”
Valsson does not direct his focus on how
we can prevent global warming. “Years ago,
when the first reports started to show that
the climate was warming, the first reaction
from politicians was to stop global warming.
They said, “We will agree to not increase
fuel emission,” and several attempts have
been made to reach that goal, such as the
Kyoto Protocol. A fourth of the world nations
have ratified the Kyoto protocol, mostly de-
veloped industrial nations that have reached
a development level where they can move
away from polluting industry. It is easy for
them to say this, but it is more difficult to
force less developed countries, such as China
and India, to meet these standards. I have
reached a point where I say, ‘Let’s try to re-
duce the emission of greenhouse gasses as
much as possible.’ But like many others, I
believe that we will not be able to prevent
global warming, at least not without a major
scientific breakthrough in the energy field,”
he says. Instead, he has chosen to accept
global warming as a fact, and focus on how
we should deal with the consequences.
Environmental Refugees
“My starting point is that global warming
will continue as predicted or even exceed
predictions. Then we will be forced to view
this problem in a completely different per-
spective. That is, we will have to start to pre-
pare for the coming changes.” Valsson claims
that the immense impact of global warming
will change our fundamental ideas about the
world. He equates the changes to a “para-
digm shift” as explained by the philosopher
Thomas Kuhn in his Structure of Scientific
Revolutions, which will force us to adapt a
whole new worldview.
“Climate change is not a new geologi-
cal phenomenon. There have been warm
eras, and cold eras before. In the past, ani-
mals, humankind included, have dealt with
this change by migration. North or south
depending on whether it is getting warmer
or cooler. This was not a big problem for
a society of hunters and gatherers. In the
present however, a climate change induced
migration is very difficult because we have
adopted a static society. As recently as the
end of the 19th century, cold winters forced
many people in northern Europe to migrate
to America, but then there was no border
control. Today, the situation is that most na-
tions try to keep their borders closed.” Vals-
son claims that to deal with this problem we
will need to move away from the this static
worldview where states are closed off by
borders and look at the world in a more in-
tegrated way, even going so far to claim that
this could be the end of the nation-state.
“We will have “environmental refugees”,
something akin to political refugees. What
other options will there be for people living
in uninhabitable areas, other than migra-
tion? If our part of the world is inhabitable,
we will have to accept refugees. How else
are we going to solve this? John Steinbeck’s
The Grapes of Wrath is a good example. It is
a story of people driven from their homes in
Oklahoma by terrible droughts. They move
to California in search of a better life, only
to find roadblocks and landowners trying to
defend their land. It is nothing new that peo-
ple are forced to move because of climate
changes, but the scale we can expect now is
unprecedented,” Valsson says.
The Hub of the Oil Wheel
According to Valsson, our patterns of habita-
tion are not the only thing we can expect
to change. As the polar ice caps melt, new
channels of transportation will open, espe-
cially in the north. If the arctic ice retreats it
would open a substantially shorter shipping
lane between the North Atlantic and the Pa-
cific Ocean, through the Bering Strait.
This would put Iceland smack in the
middle of what would be one of the most
commonly travelled shipping routes in the
world, and in Valsson’s opinion, it would be
a natural selection for a transship and depot
harbour for oil tankers to North America and
Northern Europe from Siberia’s rich oil fields
as well as from oil reservoirs in the Arctic
Ocean that are considered to become ac-
cessible with global warming. The Icelandic
Ministry for Foreign Affairs is already explor-
ing this possibility and recently released a re-
port called North Meets North: Navigation
and the Future of the Arctic, where this op-
tion is examined in detail.
While the prospect of huge oil tankers
roaming the ocean around Iceland is certain-
ly not a vision everyone endorses, we might
not have much say in the matter. Says Vals-
son: “Anywhere beyond three nautical miles
of the coastline is international shipping
lanes and beyond our control. But Iceland’s
location would likely make it the ‘hub of the
wheel,’ a distribution centre.”
As contradictory as it sounds, the effects
of global warming will make oil, the number
one cause of global warming, more easily ac-
cessible. “The disappearance of the ice pres-
ents danger. It was not presumed possible to
access these oil reservoirs before. The belief
that the present oil wells will soon run dry is
what has been pressuring nations to search
for alternative fuels sources. The danger now
is that the pressure to find alternative means
of energy is not as much,” Valsson admits,
adding, “This is your future. I’m too old fash-
ioned to like it, but what should you do?
Stick your head in the sand?”
Trausti Valsson’s book is available at most
Icelandic book stores, from Amazon.com
and free for download in .pdf form from the
author’s website: www.howtheworldwill-
change.com
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Report
(ACIA): Available at: www.acia.uaf.edu)
North Meets North: Navigation and the
Future of the Arctic: Available at: www.
utanrikisraduneyti.is/media/Utgafa/North_
Meets_North_netutg.pdf
A New Worldview
Text by Sveinn Birkir Björnsson Photo by Skari
“There are areas in downtown Reykjavík that are
extremely vulnerable to the rising sea level and it
is likely that sea will flood some parts of the city on
high tides.”