Reykjavík Grapevine - 04.05.2007, Side 6

06_REYKJAVÍK_GRAPEVINE_ISSUE 05_007_INTERVIEW/POLITICS
Arna Schram follows politics with more en-
thusiasm than most people. After finishing a
degree in political science at the University
of Iceland, she has spent the last ten plus
years covering Icelandic politics as a journal-
ist, most of that time spent as a Parliamen-
tary correspondent for the daily newspaper
Morgunblaðið. Currently, Schram is focusing
on her role as the president of the Icelandic
Journalist Association after a stint as a po-
litical analyst for the short-lived weekly news
magazine Krónikan, But with the most excit-
ing elections in decades approaching, where
the current right-centrist government coali-
tion of the Liberal Party and the Indepen-
dence Party is hanging by a thread, Schram
is rearing to put her considerable experience
as a political analyst to use, so the Grapevine
contacted her to ask a few questions about
the political landscape. [Numbers in brackets
after party names are the party’s approval
ratings according to the latest Capacent Gal-
lup Poll at the time of print.]
Do you see any difference in how the
political campaigns are being run, as op-
posed to previous elections?
To some extent, yes. The Independence Party
[39.1%] has run a very low-key campaign,
like they did last time. [Party chairman and
current Prime Minister] Geir H. Haarde seems
to be staying out of the spotlight and that
seems to be working well for him. The Pro-
gressive Party [10.0%] on the other hand is
running a more aggressive campaign, like
they have done in recent campaigns, al-
though they are not making as many, or as
big, campaign promises as they have done
before. That also seems to be working for
them; their approval numbers always seem
to go up when they start campaigning. For
the first time, The Left-Green Movement
[21.2%] is really threatening the Social-Dem-
ocratic Alliance [21.2%], which is different.
The Social Democrats seem to be in an exis-
tential crisis at the moment. The Liberal Party
[5.7%] is around the same approval rating
they have had in the last few elections. They
have often gone below 5% approval rating
between elections, but they have managed
to get a few people elected in previous elec-
tions. Then there is the Iceland Green Move-
ment, [2.3%], which is running for the first
time. It will be interesting to see how they
do, and where they will get their support
from. It would not surprise me if they get a
candidate elected, and I believe they will take
that support from the Liberal Party possibly.
You mentioned the Iceland Green Move-
ment; do you believe they will take their
support from the Liberal Party, rather
than the other green party, the Left-
Green Movement?
Well, the parties on the left have been saying
lately that the Iceland Green Movement will
destroy their chances of winning the elec-
tions. They claim that the votes cast for the
Iceland Green Movement are likely to be dead
votes if the Iceland Green Movement does
not get a person elected. That would benefit
the coalition. But I believe they will take most
of their support from the Liberal Party, more
so than the Left-Greens. The Iceland Green
Movement is trying to establish themselves
as a right wing party, and a green party, but
they do not seem to be taking votes from the
Independence Party, they seem to maintain
their usual 40% support, and I believe that
will be their eventual support. According to
the latest polls now, it seems as though the
coalition might maintain their majority, al-
though it would be a very slim majority. But
according to the same polls, the chairman
of the Progressive Party, Jón Sigurðsson, will
not be elected. It would be a big blow to the
Progressive Party if their leader would not be
elected.
Is it justifiable if a party part has little
support that its chairman is not elected,
and always seems to be shrinking, is al-
ways in a pole position after the elec-
tions? It seems as if it might be difficult
to form a coalition without the Progres-
sive Party.
Well, someone once said that every vote cast
is a vote for the Progressive Party. No matter
what, it is always in a pole position. But yes,
it is very strange, from a democratic stand-
point, if the smallest party with the least sup-
port is in power. The idea behind elections
is to make clear the will of the majority, that
the majority elects the party it would most
like to see govern, but then it is the small-
est party with the fewest votes behind it that
is in a pole position to decide what kind of
a coalition is formed. But according to the
latest polls, it is still possible that the opposi-
tion will win the election. And possibly, the
Iceland Green Movement will be in a pole
position after the elections, although that
remains unlikely.
But would a majority of one in the Par-
liament for the current coalition be very
unstable?
Yes it would be. Perhaps the Independence
Party will even feel that it would be impracti-
cal to form such a thin majority, or even join a
coalition with a party whose chairman is not
elected. If the Independence Party maintains
around 40% and the coalition is still in the
majority, the Independence Party will prob-
ably be granted first rights to form a coalition
from the President. In that case, they might
choose to form a new coalition with either
the Left-Green Movement or the Social Dem-
ocratic Alliance. Some claim that it would be
difficult for the Independence Party to work
with the Left-Greens because of differences
on foreign policy and the nation’s defenses,
as well as tax issues, but I have always said
that parties will do a lot to make it possible
to form a coalition.
But might the Independence Party and
the Social Democrats also have some dif-
ficulties because of different views on
the European Union?
Yes, the Left-Greens and the Independence
Party agree on being against the European
Union. But the remarkable thing about this
campaign is that there do not seem to be any
issues that stand apart, there is no single is-
sue that people are voting on in particular as
opposed to often before. I thought the envi-
ronment might be that issue, and their stand
on the environment has surely helped the
Left-Greens, but environmental issues still
don’t seem to capture the people.
If the current coalition maintains a ma-
jority of one, could a minority coalition
be possible?
No, I do not see that happening. I do not see
how that could happen. I think the Indepen-
dence Party would rather go with the Social
Democrats or the Left-Greens.
Do you have any explanation as to why
the gap in support between the Social
Democrats and the Left-Greens has been
eroded?
It is very difficult to say. Left-Greens have of-
ten scored high in polls between elections,
even if that has not always carried over to
the elections. I think that, even if the envi-
ronmental issues have not been in the spot-
light, the Left-Greens have still managed to
gain many votes on that issue. For the public,
it is obvious that they are more determined
about their issues; they speak in plain terms
regarding heavy industry and environmental
issues. The Social Democrats, in the mean-
time, despite putting forth a clear agenda
on many issues, have failed to establish their
agenda for the public in the same manner
as the Left-Greens, who are enjoying the on-
going environmental awakening among the
public.
If the Left-Green Party finds itself be in a
position to enter into a coalition agree-
ment with some other parties, would
it be harder for them to negotiate a
coalition agreement, exactly because
they have been more determined about
their issues and have spoken in plainer
terms?
I believe that parties can always reach an
agreement. The question is what they want
to focus on at the moment. The fact is that
politicians are fighting for power and influ-
ence. To me, it often seems that personal
disagreements stand in the way of a political
agreement, much more so than ideological
differences. I believe that if people want to
be in government they can negotiate, and
that applies to the Left-Greens as much as to
everyone else in my opinion.
You have spent a lot of time in the Par-
liament Building as a correspondent and
know many of these politicians person-
ally and you say that personal differ-
ences often get in the way rather than
ideological differences, judging from
personal interactions between Members
of Parliament. What is your feeling on
who could work together and who could
not, from a personal standpoint?
I think right now, after the regime change in
the Independence Party, everyone could work
with everyone else. The personal relationship
between [Social Democrats Chairman] Ingib-
jörg Sólrún Gísladóttir and [Independence
Party Chairman and current Prime Minister]
Geir H. Haarde is a lot better than the rela-
tionship was between Gísladóttir and [former
Independence Party Chairman and Prime
Minister] Davíð Oddson. The atmosphere is
completely different. In general, I think ev-
erybody could work with everyone else, from
a personal standpoint, except maybe for
Ingibjörg Sólrún Gísladóttir and [Left-Green
Chairman] Steingrímur J. Sigfússon. They
had an interesting spat on TV recently where
they disagreed about which of the two par-
ties should receive the Prime Minister’s chair
if the opposition won the elections. I person-
ally am not sure if either one of them could
work in a coalition where the other is Prime
Minister.
It seems to me that there is a new gener-
ation of politicians taking over, perhaps
a generation that is free of the black and
white mentality of the Cold War and
the ghosts of the political past. Do you
agree?
Yes, I think so. With the new regime of the
Independence Party, there have been some
changes. There are popular young women
coming in for the Left-Greens, there are
young people coming in for the Social Demo-
crats. Yes, I think we can safely say that there
is a new generation taking over that does not
have to carry the burden of the past, which
might well originate in the Cold War era. I
think you are right.
Elections From the Journalist’s Standpoint
Text by Sveinn Birkir Björnsson Photo by Skari
I think everybody could
work with everyone else,
from a personal stand-
point, except maybe for
Ingibjörg Sólrún Gísla-
dóttir and Steingrímur
J. Sigfússon.