Economic statistics - 01.02.1986, Blaðsíða 3

ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Vol. 7. 1. February 1986
Published quarterly by the Economic Department of the
Central Bank of lceland, P.O. Box 160, 121 Reykjavík, lceland.
ISSN 0256-193X
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN 1985
Economic activity increased in 1985 for the
second successive year afterthe recession in 1982-
1983. The current account deficit improved only
slightly and the rate of inflation was above 30% dur-
ing most of the year. Treasury finances were in a big
deficit.
Production
Provisional, figures put the total fish catch at 1653
thousand tons. The cod catch amounted to 315
thousand tons, the total catch of white fish was 571
thousand tons and the capelin catch was 993 thous-
and tons. The catch increased by nearly 81/2percent
in tonnage between 1984 and 1985. The increase in
the value of the catch measured at fixed prices was
less, or 5.7 per cent, as the increase was more con-
centrated in the less valuable species such as capel-
in. In all, 1985 was one of the best fisheries years in
lcelandic history, being comparable to the best years
sofar, i.e. 1980 and 1981.
Marine production for exports increased by 6 per
cent according to provisional estimates. This was
counteracted by a fall in aluminium production by 9.5
per cent and in ferro-silicon by 5 per cent. Other
export production increased by 8.2 per cent and total
export production by 3.5 per cent. Other production
increased somewhat less than this, so that the in-
crease in gross domestic product is estimated to
have been 2.5 per cent compared to 3.1 per cent in
1984 and a fall of 5 per cent in 1983.
Incomes
Gross national income is estimated to have in-
creased by a 1/2 per cent less than GDP, firstly be-
cause of increased interest payments on foreign
debt and secondly because of a deterioration in the
terms of trade. GNI thus increased by 2 per cent
compared to 2.6 per cent increase in 1984 and 4.2
per cent decrease in 1983.
Wage rates of all employees increased by 32.6 per
cent between 1984 and 1985, or by 0.2 per cent in
real terms. Real wages increased for the first time
since 1978. Real disposable income per capita is
estimated to have increased by 3 per cent.
Demand
Private consumption is estimated to have increas-
ed by 4.8 per cent and public consumþtion by 4.5 per
LAMi'J
cent Capital formation was stagnant but stocks de-
clined somewhat. Total gross national expenditure
increased by 2.3 per cent, or siightly less than GNP.
The current account deficit thus improved some-
what, or from 5.1 per cent of GDP in 1984 to 4.7 per
cent in 1985. Export demand was strong enough to
cause some rundown of export stocks, so that
merchandise exports increased more than export
production, or by 71/2 per cent. Exports of services
are predicted to have increased by a similar amount
but imports of goods and services are predicted to
have increased by 6.9 per cent. The table below
shows the developments of the main national
expenditure and production aggregates in 1985
compared to 1984 and 1983.
Production and expenditure.
Prelimi-
nary
Real percentage changes: 1983 1984 1985
Private consumption -8.3 3.0 4.8
Public consumption 5.5 0.0 4.5
Grossfixed investment -12.3 6.8 0.0
Total national expenditures -10.1 5.6 2.3
Export of goods and services 10.3 2.2 7.3
Import of goods and services -5.7 8.7 6.9
GDP -5.0 3.1 2.5
GNP -5.7 2.5 2.2
GNI -4.2 2.6 2.0
Balance on goods and services as percent of GDP -2.0 -5.1 -4.7
Inflation
The rate of inflation was around 50 per cent at the
beginning of the year, having increased considerably
in the wake of the big wage increases during the last
months of 1984 and the 12 per cent devaluation of
the króna on November 20. The rate of inflation soon
abated and was down to 25 per cent at the beginning
of June, measured by the three month annualized
increase in the cost of living. Inflation then increased
again after the new wage settlements in June, but the
rate of inflation was still predicted not be over 30 per
cent in the course of the year. Because of a bigger
depreciation of the króna during the second half of
the year than expected in June and a three per cent
extra increase in wages during the autumn, the cost
9 0 0 7 P.
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