Tölvumál - 01.06.1982, Qupperneq 7

TÖLVUMÁL
7
The changes in IBM, including those to
the management structure, cannot be easily
covered in a few words. It is sufficient
to say that the company is changing to
fit the demands of the newly emerging mar-
ketplaces .
Plug compatibles are here to stay. Amdahl,
NAS and the Japanese duo, Fujitsu and Hi-
tache, will not go away.
How does IBM cope?
Minimize the prices of main frames and
memories,
place the profitability in peripherals
and software.
sition. The company has been slimmed down
and deals made with Tree Rivers and Fujitsu.
It looks promising.
Siemens looks very down with litterally
thousands of employees laid off. Future
prospects, other than acquisition, look
bleak.
Olivetti is wheeling and dealing, making
arrangements worldwide, and trying hard
to stay alive.
PiRÍtal Eauipment Corporation
As IBM dominates main frames, DEC dominates
minicomputers, and has increased market
share in its markets.
This leaves the others scrambling to sur-
vive in an arena with lower profit mar-
gins.
Sell communications services such as SBS
to connect up the thousands of remote sy-
stems and leave the central processor mar-
ket to be picked at.
Amdahl has begun to react. More and more
software is coming from them. This is where
profitability will be in the future, not
in the processor (see Eastman Kodak ..
give away the camera and sell film: Gilet-
te ... give away razor and sell blades).
The Japanese are a special case. With lar-
ge built-in, well protected home markets,
Fujitsu and Hitachi come to these wars
from a position of great internal strength.
They cannot be pushed out by a mere price
change nor can their balance sheets be
destroyed by the need for additional field
support.
The Japanese will be reaching, in this
decade, for a significant market share.
Estimates vary, the numbers usually heard
vary between 10 and 18? of the total mar-
ket.
Astonishing, the elderly PDP-8 still li-
ves in new products. The PDP-11 series,
particularly the newer models, is still
selling. The VAX 32-bit series should see
new models in a short while, one larger
and one smaller. And the 20 series of 36-
bit machines still is a favorite for time-
sharing, business models and computer con-
ferencing applications. Soon, a multipro-
cessing model is expected.
Data General has had a period of manageri-
al turmoil and too much indecision. The
new line of 32-bit machines on paper look
good but DEC got there first and has skim-
med the market. Prospects: only fair.
If conventional minicomputer manufactu-
rers look weak, there are few companies
that look very strong. These include Wang
Laboratories, Tandem and Datapoint.
Wang is part data processing, part office
systems. They have done well. Tandem with
the only serious multiprocessing system
on the market proves again that if the
product is right, it will sell. Datapoint
is the company that invented the micropro-
cessor. A fairly agressive company and
doing well.
If the future is bright in Japan, what
position will be played by the "other main
framers", the traditional B-U-N-C-H ...
B = Burroughs, U = Univac, N = NCR, C =
CDC, H = Honeywell?
Microcomputers: A Fight to the Finish
It's getting crowded. Apple, Tandy and
Commodore started it off, now IBM, Xerox
and the Japanese have jumped in.
CDC is beautifully positioned to survive
and prosper. The large scale scientific
computer market remains strong. They are
the largest peripheral manufacturer.
The others? Well, the picture is bleak.
Year after year, IBM and its friends re-
duce the available marketplace.
Burroughs is reorganizing and rebuilding
its management.
The Univac picture except for large systems
is black and even on top, there are pro-
blems with the age of the 1100/82.
NCR is still unconvincing in large systems
and being beaten to the punch often in
small gear.
The magic word for 1982 and the next 4-5
years will be having a 16-bit system.
Score one for IBM.
The Office World
If microcomputers represent one phase of
the offiee, then the totality of word pro-
cessors, copiers, terminals, etc., etc.
represents the remainder.
While in a single segment, a company can
do well and survive profitably, what will
count in the long run are those handful
of companies large enough to establish
the standard interfaces into which others
will plug. And this would seem to mean
such giants as IBM, Xerox, Siemens and
possibly Wang.
Honeywell whose French connection is grow-
ing dubious, remains something of a mystery
to most observers.
ICL, a near total disaster 12 months ago,
seems to be moving back into a viable po-
The EDP fashion words for the 80'es will
be communications and data bases. And in
this respect particularly the fight for
the communications market will be fasci-
nating to watch. This is the arena where
two giants from two different fields will