Reykjavík Grapevine - 13.04.2012, Blaðsíða 8

8
The Reykjavík Grapevine
Issue 4 — 2012
Nature | Volcanoes
Words
James Ashworth
photograph
Baldvin Pálsson Dungal in 1918
Katlaaaaarrgghh (Not This Again)!
Grapevine’s resident volcanologist sifts through the scaremongering rubble
What time is it? Time for the annual
Katla eruption scare, apparently. I
was recently forwarded an article
from The Telegraph – a generally
well thought-of UK newspaper –
which was written by someone
who appears to have some genuine
knowledge of the subject at hand.
The piece essentially claims that
Katla is brewing, ready for an immi-
nent eruption that could lay waste to
parts of Iceland and screw things up
on a global scale. Reason to panic,
then?
No.
I’m going to lay this down simply, in
a desperate attempt to get as far away
from the media scaremongering as pos-
sible. Katla HAS seen an increase in
activity lately. Katla COULD erupt within
the next few months. Katla WILL erupt at
some point. And none of this is reason to
worry about a thing.
THERE ISN’T A SCHEDULE
Volcano prediction is a muddy science.
Imprecise at best and more often than
not totally woeful on any kind of me-
dium to long-term time scale. Forecast-
ing isn’t much better, and that’s just
assigning percentage probabilities to
things. Let’s take the infamous Hekla
as an example and look at the years of
recent eruptions: 1970, 1981, 1990, 2000.
Its next eruption should be in 2010 then,
right? Wrong. It’s even showing many
of the detectable signs of being ‘ready’
to erupt, but it hasn’t. It’s a year or two
‘late’ already. Hekla is an odd example
and volcanoes are rarely kind enough to
offer such a regular schedule of activ-
ity—things only get harder from there.
The best we can do is make a vague
forecast – “an X% chance of an erup-
tion of size Y or larger before date Z”.
An eruption at Katla has already been
FORECAST by people in the know, but
there is nowhere near enough activity
to yet be able to conclusively make any
kind of PREDICTION.
But when it does go, it’s going to be
huge, yeah? Again, there is nothing to
say this. It’s certainly possible—Katla has
a history of quite large eruptions and it
has been a relatively long time since the
last major eruption back in 1918, but this
doesn’t guarantee anything. The erup-
tion could be small, it could be large, it
could be ‘catastrophic’. It could be ex-
plosive or it could be the kind of pretty,
tourist-friendly, lava-fountaining erup-
tion we saw on Fimmvörðuháls in 2010.
We don’t know.
Now, that’s not to say there isn’t any
decent reporting out there. There is, if
you know what to look for. In fact, the
Telegraph article I referenced earlier
wasn’t bad at heart… it had just been
passed through the wringer of journal-
istic sensationalism a couple of times
before being published (and garnished
with an inaccurate photo caption—the
cherry on top), because that’s what
sells papers. Alas, what little accurate
and levelheaded journalism there is out
there is buried deep within piles and
piles of, frankly, complete shit (not nam-
ing any names here!).
ARE YOU A pARANOID WEIRDO?
Quite aside from all of this science and
sensationalism, though, there is a more
basic reason why you shouldn’t worry:
BECAUSE YOU CAN’T DO ANYTHING
ABOUT IT ANYWAY. You could refuse
to go to Iceland because of the ‘risk’,
but you’d be missing out on visiting a
wonderful country. You could refuse
to use air travel in case you get stuck
somewhere, but you’d be missing out
on visiting ANY country. You could pre-
pare an emergency bunker full of food
supplies and gasoline, but you’d be a
paranoid weirdo. Rest assured that gov-
ernments and organisations around the
world should have pretty comprehen-
sive guidelines in place regarding how
to deal with a large Icelandic eruption
(especially since Eyjafjallajökull caught
everyone with their pants around their
ankles). They will (should…) do the best
they can and there’s nothing you can do
to affect that. Just live your life already!
There are only a select few groups of
people who really have a vested inter-
est here. First, the local residents, who
would be on the ‘front line’ if something
were to happen. They should, well, be
prepared. Second, international organ-
isations like civil aviation authorities and
government bodies, whose job it will be
to actually deal with this stuff. Third, the
scientists who are trying to understand
it all… and to improve the science to
help the former two groups. If you don’t
fall into one of those, then chill out, relax
and enjoy.
Oh and please visit Iceland (while
you still can)…
A friend of mine swears there
are rats in Reykjavík, but in
my ten years in this town I
have never seen one. There
is, however, another type of
rat that you should become fa-
m i l - iar with. It’s the so-called “Miðbæjar-
rottur”, which literally translates to “Down-
town Rats”. They are a common sight on the
streets of Reykjavík. They prefer to spend the
vast majority of their time in the zip code of 101
Reykjavík; that is they like to work, live, shop,
eat, and party within a five kilometre radius.
The best-known rat species are the Hipster
Rat (Rattus-Bakkus) and the Party Rat (Rattus-
djammicus). Hipster rats are often involved in
music, fashion, art, theatre and various other
creative enterprises. They can be identified by
their glasses, and their distinctive odour of Ko-
laportið, the local flea market. And they are all
cooler than you. Party rats are a less common
sight during daytime hours. They are noctur-
nal and can be spotted out on weekend nights
at any bar, livers and blizzards be damned.
Student Rats (Rattus-háskólis) exhibit the same
behaviour, yet they manage to attend classes
during the week by consuming extraordinary
amounts of caffeine. Family rats (Rattus-
familius) make up a large part of the popula-
tion, although little is known about how they
sleep on weekends.
Hard-core downtown rats pride them-
selves on being able to get everything they
need in 101 and love nothing more than walk-
ing or biking home from work, stopping at the
bakery for bread, and nodding to the people
they know along the way. Most do not own
cars and prefer to spend their gas money on
delicious lattes or weekday pub visits, which
their suburban cousins almost never enjoy.
Extreme cases can result in a feeling of slight
unease when venturing out of 101.
However, a combination of factors includ-
ing sky-high rent, increased competition from
shopping malls, and rising tourism threaten
the downtown rats’ way of life. While it was
once possible to go to a toy store or buy a pair of
running shoes on Laugavegur, many of these
shops have closed down. Quaint shops run by
real people have been replaced by guesthouses
and shops full of cheesy souvenirs. Downtown
rats call them “puffin shops.”
A few strongholds still exist; thank Thor
for Brynja, an old-fashioned hardware store
where not unlike like Santa’s magic bag, ev-
erything you'll ever need magically fits into a
small two-room shop. There are also welcome
newcomers like Litli Bóndabærinn, where cof-
fee and pastries are made with love and local
ingredients.
The Society for the Preservation of the
Endangered Downtown Rat suggests that
tourists interested in the preservation of this
majestic creature spend their hard earned dol-
lars or euros on a real souvenir.
One beautifully designed garment, piece
of art, or pair of real grandma-knitted mittens
is worth all the gold plated lava rock necklaces
in the world. Take your picture at an Icelandic
rock show with real Icelandic Viking man-
sweat on you instead of in front of a fake Vi-
king village. Return home with a suitcase full
of amazing Icelandic albums that will have
you smugly saying “I listened to them before
they were big,” for years to come.
So let us consider the beauty of this symbi-
otic relationship and do our part to keep it real
in Reykjavík
Opinion | B.R. Neal
Save The Rats!
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