Reykjavík Grapevine - 09.03.2012, Page 8

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The Reykjavík Grapevine
Issue 3 — 2012
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!
Norwegian and British prospectors dis-
covered strong evidence that there is oil in
the so-called Dragon Area, the northeast
corner of Icelandic territorial waters. Rock
samples showed "active seepage of Juras-
sic oil and a working hydrocarbon system."
This will in all likelihood make things pretty
exciting when a new Icelandic Licensing
Round for drilling comes up this spring.
While there is no indication as to exactly
how much oil there might be, Hermann
Guðmundsson, the director of petrol sta-
tion chain N1, told reporters that this could
“make Iceland one of the richest countries
in the world within the next 12 years.”
THE pRESIDENT IS RUNNING AFTER
ALL
After insinuating in his New Year's address
that he would not seek re-election, and
then refusing for months to give a straight
answer when questioned, President Óla-
fur Ragnar Grímsson has announced that
he will run again this year. This was due
in part, he said, to being presented with a
petition with 30.000 signatures calling for
him to run. Ólafur, who has been president
for sixteen years now, could wind up being
president for two decades if he wins. How-
ever he has said that he may not finish his
term if elected. During the time in which he
appeared to be indecisive or perhaps se-
cretive about his intentions to run or not, a
poll conducted by Fréttablaðið showed the
largest percentage of respondents wanted
him to stay on, followed close behind by
Former Minister of Justice Ragna Árnadót-
tir (who has since declined to run) and for-
mer chair of the Central Bank and current
editor of Morgunblaðið Davíð Oddsson.
REYKJAvÍK ENERGY pROpERTIES
SOLD WITHOUT ADvERTISEMENT
Reykjavík Energy (RE) apparently sold at
least two of its holdings without ever mak-
ing a public advertisement that they were
for sale. The City of Reykjavík, which owns
94% of RE, acted on information they re-
ceived about the matter and made a formal
inquiry to RE. According to data on RE’s
website, the sale process of the two hold-
ings—Enex Kína and Envent Holding—be-
gan in February 2010, with a deal signed
in August 19, 2011. While RE only owned
19.53% of Enex Kína and 24.5% of Envent,
the sale apparently went underway without
the shares being made publicly available.
FORMER pM IS ON TRIAL
Former Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde is
currently standing trial for negligence and
mismanagement in the months leading up
to Iceland’s financial collapse, despite the
best efforts of his brethren in the conser-
vative party to get the charges dropped.
Geir has maintained that nobody could
have predicted the crash and furthermore
that there was nothing he could have done
to prevent it. Day one was spent drilling
Geir, who said that he was happy to finally
get a chance to respond to the charges. On
day two, former Chair of the Central Bank
Davíð Oddsson, among others, testified.
He asserted that he had warned Geir about
trouble brewing in the banks, and that Geir
showed a lack of confidence and trust in
Davíð’s words. At the same time, he said he
understood Geir not heeding his warnings,
as it appeared that the banks were doing
quite well financially.
pAUL FONTAINE
politics | Chaos
So, will the Icelandic government
survive yet another Grapevine dead-
line? probably, but its chances of
re-election are looking increasingly
grim. This time, though, the threat
is emerging from the left, and the
landscape of Icelandic politics might
hang in the balance.
For most of the last 100 years, there have
been four major parties in the Icelandic
Alþingi: The Independence Party (right/
conservative), The Progressive Party
(centre right or centre left, depending on
which way the wind blows), The Social
Democrats or their equivalent (left) and
then a party that’s further left, currently
the Left-Greens. There has usually been
a splinter party too, (even farther left or
farther right), but these almost never last
for more than two elections.
A NATIONAL AGREEMENT TO GO
THE WRONG WAY
Even though the line-up is fairly con-
sistent, the instruments played are not.
During the boom, for example, both The
Independence Party and The Progressive
Party and even most of The Social Dem-
ocratic Alliance Party had become thor-
oughbred neo-liberals, moving further
to the right and leaving the Left-Greens
alone in what had previously been the
centre to left part of the spectrum. The
economic collapse then led to a left
swing, The Social Democrats reaffirmed
their leftist roots and formed a govern-
ment with the Left-Greens in 2009.
In the elections that year, a new party,
The Civic Movement, got four MPs in,
but started committing hara-kiri almost
upon arrival. First, one of its MPs left
the party, and then the party itself left
the three remaining MPs. Nevertheless,
those three MPs, who formed The Move-
ment, have managed to make their pres-
ence felt in the Alþingi, not least of them
Birgitta Jónsdóttir, who has received in-
ternational attention for her support of
Wikileaks.
WHATEvER HAppENED TO THE
CENTRE?
The municipal elections of 2010 brought
a different kind of party to power in
Reykjavík. Comedian Jón Gnarr became
mayor, heading a coalition of his own
Best Party and The Social Democrats.
Meanwhile, The Progressive Party, origi-
nally a farmers’ party and often weak in
the capital, was finally wiped out. Was
this the new face of Icelandic politics, the
irreverent Best Party taking the place of
the sombre old farmers’ party at the cen-
tre of the spectrum?
In fact, the very notion of centre
seems to have changed. Whereas it used
to imply people were rather content with
things the way they were, not wanting
too much of one thing or the other and
certainly not radical change, it now ap-
pears to be made up of people who felt
cheated in the boom, those not satisfied
with the results of reconstruction or
those opposed to the old four party left-
right system. Polls consistently show this
to be upwards of half of all voters, so it is
small wonder that the new parties would
want to appeal to these constituents.
THE ANGRY MIDDLE-AGED MEN
The old centre party, The Progressives,
have meanwhile abdicated from the
centre. Their leader Sigmundur Davíð
Gunnlaugsson usually presents himself
as the angry man of Icelandic politics,
but with their nationalist rhetoric, they
seem to have placed themselves to the
right of The Independence Party.
Could The Best Party step into the void
and repeat its impressive Reykjavík
results on a national level? Best Party
CEO Heiða Helgadóttir certainly hopes
so. She paired up with Guðmundur Ste-
ingrímsson to form the Bright Future
party. While Guðmundur seems sensible
and remains well liked, he is much taint-
ed by previously having been a member
of no less than two mainstream political
parties. So much for outsider status.
It should be noted that they an-
nounced their candidacy prior to coming
up with a platform or even their party’s
name. Rather than heralding the begin-
ning of a powerful new force in Icelandic
politics, this seems more to have encour-
aged others to do the same.
THE FAR LEFT TURNS RIGHT
The new party that has caused the big-
gest stir is the one led by Lilja Mósesdót-
tir, previously a Left-Green who aban-
doned ship halfway through the current
term. Lilja has often complained that the
left government is not being left enough,
so it would seem reasonable that after
setting off on her own, that her party,
would be even farther to the left. Right?
Wrong. Lilja has also headed for the
centre, calling up former Independence
Party member and beloved weather-
man (yes, really) Siggi Stormur (“Siggi
Storm”) to front the party with her.
Perhaps inevitably, the party is called
Solidarity, and perhaps just as inevitably,
Siggi has already left amid rivalry over
who gets the most airtime, and says he
will not vote for the party.
Without Siggi’s vote, Lilja’s following
will no doubt mostly come at the expense
of the left. Meanwhile The Movement is
showing signs of life, with reconcilia-
tion between party MPs and other party
members in the works.
It’s hard to see any major policy differ-
ences between the new parties. All claim
to represent a broad front of agreement
cutting across old divisions, while in-
creasingly fracturing the political land-
scape. All want a substantial reduction
in people’s debts, as do most people, but
no one seems to have a realistic plan for
achieving this.

AND THE WINNER IS…
What does seem obvious is that the cur-
rent two-party government will not sur-
vive the next election unchanged, being
weakened both by constant attacks from
the right and splintering on the left. The
solution would be to bring in other part-
ners, but since the current government
has a hard time reaching agreements,
would a three or four party coalition re-
ally be more manageable? And would Lil-
ja, if induced to join, be more willing to
cooperate with the government, as head
of her own party rather than a member
of the Left-Greens?
Perhaps we’ll see a Best Party-style
landslide of one of the new parties, thus
presenting a credible alternative to the
four established ones while taking votes
from both left and right. But with still
a year to go, it is more likely that new
parties will appear rather than old ones
merging, this seems remote. The Best
Party itself benefitted greatly from being
the only viable alternative to the old four,
but no party is now in this position. And
no party has yet suggested that rarity in
Icelandic politics: an electoral alliance.
The alternative is clear. According
to polls, The Independence Party has
regained most of its strength (around
35% of the vote), even if it is unquestion-
ably the party most responsible for the
collapse. The increased fracturing will
probably put them in a key position after
the next election, regardless of whether
that’s what most Icelanders want.
All Tomorrow’s parties
(And Yesterday’s Too)
Words
Valur Gunnarsson
Illustration
Inga María Brynjarsdóttir
Does any of these parties appeal to you? Why/why not? Do we maybe need yet another party? What
would that party be called, and what should its purpose be? Drop us a line: letters@grapevine.is
Continued
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“Perhaps inevitably, the
party is called Solidarity,
and perhaps just as
inevitably, Siggi has
already left amid rivalry
over who gets the most
airtime, and says he will
not vote for the party.”