Iceland review - 2016, Page 40

38 ICELAND REVIEW
The Progressive Party and Sigmundur
Davíð have repeatedly told Icelanders
that the Icelandic króna is best for
Iceland; yet, the ex-PM chose to keep
his family wealth outside of Iceland.
The ex-PM has only apologized for his
“pathetic performance” in the April 3
interview, nothing more. The utter lack
of humility has offended many voters.
The country that in 2008 suffered a
financial collapse is now experiencing an
ethical one.
RIPPLES OR RADICAL CHANGES?
Despite having stepped down as PM,
Sigmundur Davíð remains the leader
of the Progressive Party. Given his lack
of popularity (an MMR poll conducted
April 4 and 5 found 10.1 percent of vot-
ers trusted him—a historic low), it would
amount to a collective political hara-kiri
for the Progressive Party if a new leader
weren’t found in time for the early elec-
tions called for this autumn. The party’s
next conference, originally slated for
2017, is likely to be brought forward to
this year and a new leader chosen.
In the months before the 2013 elec-
tion, Sigmundur Davíð caused a surge in
the party’s support by promising billions
for the public purse from the resolu-
tion of the old banks’ estates. It quickly
showed to be a feeble promise and the
party’s downward slide from the 25 per-
cent of votes it received started almost
immediately after the elections. A year
ago the party’s support was well below 20
percent. It now polls at 7 percent.
The Independence Party scored 27
percent in the 2013 elections. Hovering
for a while at 20 percent, a record low
for this grand old party of Icelandic
politics, it has now shot up to 27 per-
cent, probably mostly because of disil-
lusioned Progressive Party voters. The
Pirate Party, founded in 2012, has scored
close to 40 percent over the past year but
has now fallen to just below 30 percent,
apparently losing to the Left Greens,
now polling at 20 percent; better than
any time since early in their term in gov-
ernment. Now polling at 9 percent, the
Social Democratic Alliance, the old and
established party on the left, has lost its
former glory. Bright Future, a split from
the Social Democrats, stays around 5
percent, which is the benchmark needed
for a party to get into Alþingi.
NEW ICELAND?
The political fall-out from the Panama
Papers could take yet another turn.
On election day, brought forward from
spring 2017 to some point in autumn
this year, voters may feel more inclined
to favor the tried-and-tested old
parties, rather than the young Pirates.
For the time being, left-leaning voters
seem to prefer the Left Greens to the
Social Democrats. On the right side, the
Independence Party enjoys less support
than it once did; a new Progressive leader
might improve the Progressives’ present
dismal situation.
The autumn elections may bring a
coalition of the Left Green and Pirate
parties, though any party might be wary
of the Left Greens, given their propen-
sity for internal opposition to the party
leadership. Apart from the Pirate belief
in all things digital, their policies are
still in the making. This has led foreign
observers of Icelandic politics to view
the Pirates as a major political risk, in
contrast with the Pirates’ popularity in
Iceland where their main voter appeal is
their no-nonsense approach to politics.
But the political consequences don’t
end there: instead of retiring as planned,
after 20 years in office, President Ólafur
Ragnar Grímsson announced in mid-
April that, in light of recent events, he
will stand for a sixth term in the June
presidential election. He views himself
as an important rock for the nation in
times of turmoil. A few days before this
issue went to print, it was reported that
the president has connections to an off-
shore company through his wife Dorrit
Moussaieff, as revealed in the Panama
Papers. The president and his wife have
denied knowledge of the existence of the
company.
The massive protests on April 4—
followed by other demonstrations—and
the simmering discontent in spite of the
economic boom in Iceland show that
the old political parties have been una-
ble to respond to the public mood. The
ties between money and politics were
exposed in the thorough 2010 report
on the banking collapse. The Panama
Papers, both their content and the fee-
ble response from coalition ministers,
indicate that lessons haven’t been learnt.
As ever, whether the New Iceland will
come into being any time soon appears
uncertain.
Sigrún Davíðsdóttir is an
Icelandic journalist based in London.
She blogs at uti.is.
Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson (left) and Bjarni Benediktsson, finance minister and leader of
the Independence Party, formally announcing that Sigurður Ingi is Iceland’s new PM.
NEWS ANALYSIS