Reykjavík Grapevine - mar. 2021, Blaðsíða 8

By the time you read this, a volcano may
have erupted in Reykjanes, Iceland’s
southwestern peninsula and the home
of the Keflavík International Airport.
It’s also possible that the magma
currently moving under the surface of
the Earth has retreated, or that it’s still
moving but hasn’t breached the surface
yet. At this point, all we have are best
estimates. That’s just the nature of the
science of earthquakes and volcanoes.
While all of Iceland is geologically
active, this is a story about Reykjanes,
whose name literally means “smok-
ing peninsula”, if that gives you any
indication of just how active the area
is. Here, we examine a timeline that
begins on February 23rd, when a series
of significant earthquakes began to
ripple through the area, culminating
in the first signs, on March 3rd, that a
volcanic eruption may be on the way.
From here, we’ll look at best case—and
worst case—scenarios. The good news
is there’s little to worry about. The bad
news is things are still up in the air; at
least, at the time of this writing.
How active are we
talking about?
First time arrivals to Iceland almost
always disembark at Keflavík Inter-
national Airport, and then drive or
take the bus on to Reykjavík. Along
the way, the first thing you notice are
the immense lava fields which stretch
all the way to the horizon. You’d be
forgiven for thinking that this lava
only cooled down moments ago for
how fresh it appears, and geologically
speaking, it is quite fresh. The area is
fed by five volcanic systems—striking
considering its relatively small size—
and much of the lava we see there today
came from the notorious Reykjanes
Fires, which lasted from the 10th to the
12th century. In fact, between 1210 and
1240, some 50 square kilometres of this
region was covered in lava.
The first indications that we were
entering a new period of instability
arguably began in January 2020, when
a swarm of earthquakes were measured
around Mount "orbjörn, one of Reyk-
janes’ many volcanoes. At the time,
there were grave concerns that an
eruption was imminent, but ultimately
nothing came of it and, after a week or
so, the volcano fell off the radar. While
Mount "orbjörn is no longer in the
current discussion, Reykjanes certainly
is.
How it kicked off
In the early morning hours of Febru-
ary 23rd, a 4.3 magnitude quake 7km
beneath the surface and 3.6km east
of Fagradalsfjall struck. This was
followed seconds later by a 5.7 quake
near Keilir. Since then, earthquakes of
a magnitude of 3 or greater have been
a daily occurence. Reykjanes is geologi-
cally active relative to the rest of the
country, but the size and frequency
of these quakes has raised concerns
nonetheless. Not so much in terms of
devastation—Icelandic infrastructure,
including homes and buildings, are
famously designed with earthquakes
in mind, and the safest place you can
be in Iceland during an earthquake is
indoors—but more in terms of what
these events could precede.
On March 3rd, scientists announced
that it was increasingly likely that a
volcanic eruption was on the way. This
was based on GPS measurements and
other data points that indicated magma
was moving very quickly beneath
the surface of the Earth in relatively
the same area the earthquakes were
centered.
Iceland’s earth scientists are
normally very reluctant to speculate
on the possibility of a volcanic erup-
tion, even in the midst of an earthquake
swarm, so just the fact that they were
using language such as “increasingly
likely” drew international attention.
The quiet science
(until it isn’t)
The science of earthquakes and volca-
noes is normally a quiet affair, some
might even say repetitive, the vast
majority of the time. This sentiment
was echoed by Baldur Bergsson, a
specialist in monitoring at the Icelan-
8 The Reykjavík Grapevine
Issue 03— 2021
The
Sleeping Giant: Earthquakes
And Volcanoes In
Reykjanes
Words: Andie Sophia Fontaine Photos: Art Bicnick
From the current situation to worst case scenarios