Reykjavík Grapevine - 23.09.2016, Blaðsíða 16

Next month, Iceland’s parliamentary
election will come a bit earlier than
usual. Thanks in large part to last
April’s Panama Papers leak, and the
ensuing protests, Icelanders will vote
for their next government on October
29, instead of May 2017. The results
of numerous polls over the past few
months, from various sources, show
it’s highly likely that—whatever the
result—the country is due for some
significant changes in Parliament. And
there may be more civil unrest in store.
The odd couple
As things stand now, Iceland’s Par-
liament spans a spectrum from left
to right. The (centre-right) Progres-
sive Party and the (right wing) Inde-
pendence Party comprise the ruling
coalition, while the (politically am-
biguous) Pirate Party, the (left wing)
Left-Greens, the (centre-left) Social
Democrats and (centrist) Bright Fu-
ture comprise the opposition. This
is very likely to change utterly come
November.
Polls from Market and Media Re-
search, Gallup, Fréttablaðið/Stöð 2
and others have, for the past several
months now, shown similar patterns
of support: the Pirate Party—who cur-
rently only have three seats in Parlia-
ment—and the Independence Party
are far and away the largest parties in
the country, and are currently hover-
ing at similar levels of support. While
the Pirates had dominated the polls for
a year from March 2015, their numbers
have been in steady decline since this
spring. At the same time, the Progres-
sive Party is steadily shrinking. The
Left-Greens are the second-largest op-
position party in the country, with some
recent modest growth, while the Social
Democrats are in decline. Bright Future
are all but wiped out.
Adding more variables to the mix
is Viðreisn, a centre-right party that
formed earlier this year. Despite
not having any seats in Parliament,
they’ve managed to tie with, or sur-
pass, Bright Future, the Progressives
and the Social Democrats. In addition,
two prominent members of the Inde-
pendence Party—former party vice
chair Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir
and former Prime Minister Þorsteinn
Pálsson—have joined the new party.
This, and other factors, could signifi-
cantly hurt the Independence Party.
But we’ll get to that in a bit.
What kind of Parliament
will we get?
If the current polling numbers are re-
flected in the election results, we are
left with two very possible options—
and neither of them is likely to be tak-
en with a shrug.
The first option is a ruling coalition
of the Pirate Party and the Indepen-
dence Party. Mathematically, it makes
sense, as they are currently the only
two parties that could comprise a two-
party coalition with a solid majority
of parliamentary seats, and having a
two-party ruling coalition is consid-
ered a solid, stable government in Ice-
land. Ideologically, things get more
complicated.
Pirate Party captain Birgitta Jóns-
dóttir has publicly stated that she con-
siders it out of the question that these
two parties could ever find enough in
common to form a joint platform—the
lynchpin of any ruling coalition. At
the same time, other Pirates that the
Grapevine has spoken to have been
quick to emphasise that Birgitta’s po-
sition doesn’t represent the views of
the entire Pirate Party. The party itself
hasn’t released a statement on this
matter, but remain emphatic in their
contention that they’re neither right
wing nor left wing; in fact, they con-
sider the concepts of right and left to
be obsolete in today’s politics.
However, the Pirates do represent a
big change to the existing order—and
it doesn’t get more status quo than the
Independence Party. As such, this co-
alition would be difficult to form, not
least of all without sparking outrage
amongst Pirate Party voters.
The other option would be a coali-
tion of three or even more parties.
This is not unprecedented in Icelandic
politics, but is generally regarded as a
stop-gap solution, or even a sign of a
crisis. For about fifteen years—from
the mid-1970s until 1991—Iceland
went through a series of multi-party
coalitions. This period was dubbed
the Stjónarkreppa (“the government
crisis”). In fact, a large part of the ad-
miration former Independence Party
chair Davíð Oddsson still enjoys is due
to him having put an end to this crisis:
namely, by helping ensuring the coun-
try would be ruled by the Indepen-
dence Party and the Progressive Party
from April 1991 to May 2007.
The wildcard in all this is Viðreisn.
How many votes they can siphon off of
the Independence Party still remains
to be seen, but prominent conserva-
tives joining up with these newcomers
doesn’t bode well for the Independence
Party. Moreover, primary elections
within the Independence Party have
all but eliminated all women from the
top seats, and conservative women are
already talking about forming a party
of their own. With Þorgerður and oth-
ers in Viðreisn, these conservative
women voters could very well move
their support Viðreisn’s way.
Where does this
leave us?
One should keep in mind that actual
votes can deviate wildly from polls.
However, when many different polls
show very similar numbers, month
after month, we have a clearer picture
of which way votes could go. As it is, it
seems as though no matter what the
result of next month’s elections, Ice-
land is very likely to have a political cri-
sis on its hands come November, wheth-
er between parliamentary parties, or
amongst the general public—or both.
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DECISION '16
ANALYSIS
ICELAND’S LOOMING POLITICAL SHITSTORM
Words
PAUL
FONTAINE
Illustration
AUÐUR LÓA
“No matter what the result of next month’s elections, Iceland is very
likely to have a political crisis on its hands come November—whether
between parliamentary parties, or amongst the general public.”
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The Reykjavík Grapevine
Issue 15 — 2016
16