Vinnumarkaður - 01.10.1994, Page 126

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Synopsis of methods and concepts
been recalculated, using the same algorithms for all
surveys.
6. Applying weights to all cases has especially increased
the weight of 16 and 17 year old persons, as these were
underrepresented in 1992 and 1993. This has tended to
lower the total labour force participation rate.
7. As bias from sample overcoverage has been removed by
estimating the total number of ineligible individuals in
the mean population, the estimated total number of
persons in all groups has been reduced.
10.2 Unemployment registration and estimated
number of man-years
10.2.1 Origin of data
The number of unemployment days, as registered at the
public unemployment agencies, is collected each month by
the Social Ministry - Office of Labour. This data is published
each month in a special bulletin Yfirlit um atvinnuástandið
[Employment Overview]. Since 1986 the Statistical Bureau
of Iceland has also collected quarterly data from the same
source on the number of registered unemployed persons, by
length of registered unemployment, sex and age groups. The
reference points are the end of February, May, August and
November each year. From 1986 to February 1988 the
reference day was the last Friday in the respective month.
Since May 1988 the reference day has been the last working
day in the reference month. The National Economic Institute
(NEI) estimates the number of man-years each year.
10.2.2 Coverage and reliability
Registered unemployment. Registration at a public unem-
ployment agency is a prerequisite for unemployment com-
pensation. Not all unemployed persons make use of this
right. Self-employed persons and persons not previously in
employment, such as homemakers and students, have lim-
ited compensation rights. Persons may also be registered
without being available for work. These problems diminish
the value of using registration data to estimate true unem-
ployment.
Estimated number of man-years. The NEI’s estimation
of number of man-years is used to calculate relative unem-
ployment as registered by public employment agencies.
These estimates derive from data on the number of working
weeks supplied by the tax authorities. As the production of
these figures tends to be late, the number of man-years in
1992 and 1993 are the NEI’s own estimates. In 1991 the
number of working weeks of employees was counted in
selected firms. The total wage outlay for these firms was
62.9% of all wage outlays that year. The number of working
weeks for the remaining employees was estimated by taking
into account average wages per economic branch. The
number of working weeks of own-account workers was
estimated by using data from monthly tax retums.
The reference period for the number of man-year is the
whole year. The monthly variations are calculated by using
coefficients which simulate seasonal variations. The distri-
bution by sex and residence for the years 1992 and 1993 are
calculated by using the same proportional distribution as in
1991.
Number of registered unemployed persons by length
of unemployment, sex and age group. Between 1986 and
May 1993 these data were collected from municipalities
with more than 500 inhabitants. From August 1993 all
municipalities registering unemployment separately, have
reported to the SBI.
Age groups are defined by the calendar year. In February
and May information is collected for the number of unem-
ployed persons who will be 16 years or older at the end of the
year. In August and November the age limit is persons who
will be 15 years or older at the end of the year.
Until August 1993 agency non-response has been higher
for the quarterly data than for the monthly data of registered
unemployment days.
10.2.3 Concepts
Number of man-years. The number of full-time job
equivalents, estimated from the number of working weeks
during the year. Two part-time jobs, totalling 26 weeks each,
constitute one man-year. Registered unemployment is cal-
culated in a similar way and added to the number of full-time
equivalents.
Average monthly unemployment. Average monthly
unemployment is calculated by the number of unemploy-
ment days divided by the average number of working days
per month (21,67).
Length of registered unemployment. The number of
successive weeks an individual has been registered as
unemployed on the reference day. Loss of compensation
rights does not interrupt the count of weeks in unemploy-
ment. Casual work or part-time work does not affect the
count of unemployment weeks unless this leads to the
individual’s removal from the register for one week or more.
10.3 Labour force projection
10.3.1 Origin of data
Every three years the Statistical Bureau of Iceland creates
population projections based on various combinations of
mortality rates, fertility rates and net migration. The latest
projection dates from 1991. One variant of the population
projections is published in Landshagir [Statistical Abstract
of Iceland]. The present labour force projection is based
upon the population projection published in Landshagir,
1993, and the labour force surveys 1991-1993.
10.3.2 Projection assumptions
The labour force projection is based on the following
assumptions:
Mortality rates decrease by 0,5% per year up to the year
2000, based on the average mortality rates of 1985-89 taken
as mortality rates for 1987. Fertility rates are assumed to
decrease to a total fertility rate of 1,9 by 1997. Migration
rates for 1986-90 are applied to extemal migration, modi-
fied as to result in a net migration of zero.
Throughout the period, the total number of active persons
is estimated by using the average labour force participation
rates 1991-1993 per each sex and age group (16-19 years,
20-24 years, 25-29 years, .., 70-74 years}, taking into
account the overcoverage bias discussed in section 10.1.3.