Vinnumarkaður - 01.10.1994, Síða 126

Vinnumarkaður - 01.10.1994, Síða 126
124 Synopsis of methods and concepts been recalculated, using the same algorithms for all surveys. 6. Applying weights to all cases has especially increased the weight of 16 and 17 year old persons, as these were underrepresented in 1992 and 1993. This has tended to lower the total labour force participation rate. 7. As bias from sample overcoverage has been removed by estimating the total number of ineligible individuals in the mean population, the estimated total number of persons in all groups has been reduced. 10.2 Unemployment registration and estimated number of man-years 10.2.1 Origin of data The number of unemployment days, as registered at the public unemployment agencies, is collected each month by the Social Ministry - Office of Labour. This data is published each month in a special bulletin Yfirlit um atvinnuástandið [Employment Overview]. Since 1986 the Statistical Bureau of Iceland has also collected quarterly data from the same source on the number of registered unemployed persons, by length of registered unemployment, sex and age groups. The reference points are the end of February, May, August and November each year. From 1986 to February 1988 the reference day was the last Friday in the respective month. Since May 1988 the reference day has been the last working day in the reference month. The National Economic Institute (NEI) estimates the number of man-years each year. 10.2.2 Coverage and reliability Registered unemployment. Registration at a public unem- ployment agency is a prerequisite for unemployment com- pensation. Not all unemployed persons make use of this right. Self-employed persons and persons not previously in employment, such as homemakers and students, have lim- ited compensation rights. Persons may also be registered without being available for work. These problems diminish the value of using registration data to estimate true unem- ployment. Estimated number of man-years. The NEI’s estimation of number of man-years is used to calculate relative unem- ployment as registered by public employment agencies. These estimates derive from data on the number of working weeks supplied by the tax authorities. As the production of these figures tends to be late, the number of man-years in 1992 and 1993 are the NEI’s own estimates. In 1991 the number of working weeks of employees was counted in selected firms. The total wage outlay for these firms was 62.9% of all wage outlays that year. The number of working weeks for the remaining employees was estimated by taking into account average wages per economic branch. The number of working weeks of own-account workers was estimated by using data from monthly tax retums. The reference period for the number of man-year is the whole year. The monthly variations are calculated by using coefficients which simulate seasonal variations. The distri- bution by sex and residence for the years 1992 and 1993 are calculated by using the same proportional distribution as in 1991. Number of registered unemployed persons by length of unemployment, sex and age group. Between 1986 and May 1993 these data were collected from municipalities with more than 500 inhabitants. From August 1993 all municipalities registering unemployment separately, have reported to the SBI. Age groups are defined by the calendar year. In February and May information is collected for the number of unem- ployed persons who will be 16 years or older at the end of the year. In August and November the age limit is persons who will be 15 years or older at the end of the year. Until August 1993 agency non-response has been higher for the quarterly data than for the monthly data of registered unemployment days. 10.2.3 Concepts Number of man-years. The number of full-time job equivalents, estimated from the number of working weeks during the year. Two part-time jobs, totalling 26 weeks each, constitute one man-year. Registered unemployment is cal- culated in a similar way and added to the number of full-time equivalents. Average monthly unemployment. Average monthly unemployment is calculated by the number of unemploy- ment days divided by the average number of working days per month (21,67). Length of registered unemployment. The number of successive weeks an individual has been registered as unemployed on the reference day. Loss of compensation rights does not interrupt the count of weeks in unemploy- ment. Casual work or part-time work does not affect the count of unemployment weeks unless this leads to the individual’s removal from the register for one week or more. 10.3 Labour force projection 10.3.1 Origin of data Every three years the Statistical Bureau of Iceland creates population projections based on various combinations of mortality rates, fertility rates and net migration. The latest projection dates from 1991. One variant of the population projections is published in Landshagir [Statistical Abstract of Iceland]. The present labour force projection is based upon the population projection published in Landshagir, 1993, and the labour force surveys 1991-1993. 10.3.2 Projection assumptions The labour force projection is based on the following assumptions: Mortality rates decrease by 0,5% per year up to the year 2000, based on the average mortality rates of 1985-89 taken as mortality rates for 1987. Fertility rates are assumed to decrease to a total fertility rate of 1,9 by 1997. Migration rates for 1986-90 are applied to extemal migration, modi- fied as to result in a net migration of zero. Throughout the period, the total number of active persons is estimated by using the average labour force participation rates 1991-1993 per each sex and age group (16-19 years, 20-24 years, 25-29 years, .., 70-74 years}, taking into account the overcoverage bias discussed in section 10.1.3.
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