Le Nord : revue internationale des Pays de Nord - 01.06.1940, Page 97

ECONOMIC FELLOWSHIP
9i
there has been a considerable surplus in favour of Sweden. To
some extent this change has been due to the rapid industrialization
of Finland, which required increasing supplies of iron and
machinery, in the production of which Swedish industry was to
a large extent complementary to that of Finland. But in part it
was also connected with a reorganization of agricultural pro-
duction. Finnish agricultural exports comprised in the main dairy
goods and other animal produce. During the course of the nine-
teenth century Sweden herself developed a flourishing export
business in those lines of trade and this could not fail to affect
the import trade very materially. This tendency was also rein-
forced by the tariff policy which, in Sweden as elsewhere, ulti-
mately developed into a very complex system of agricultural
regulation.
But at the same time that the Swedish export surplus has
increased in size there has also been a noticeable growth of the
total trade between the two countries. Since 1933, when the
pound exchange was pegged in both countries, the krona and
the mark have moved in agreement with each other and a stable
relation was maintained even after the connection with the pound
was dissolved at about the outbreak of the European war. This
stability of exchange rates has been a very great advantage to
the trade between Finland and Sweden and it has also contri-
buted to assimilate the course of business fluctuations in the two
countries.
During present conditions it is vain to discuss the immediate
prospects of the export trade of Sweden and Finland. But quite
apart from the political and economic disturbances of to-day
certain changes are likely to arise. The exports of forest pro-
ducts cannot be expected to increase at the same pace as hitherto.
The reserves of raw materials do not at present seem to admit
of much further expansion as far as quantities are concerned.
Possibly there may even be need for some contraction. Any
further growth in the total value of such exports will largely
depend upon the extent to which technical progress will make
it possible to turn the raw materials to still better account than
before. There is reason to think that progress on that score may
prove satisfactory, but in any case it is reasonable to anticipate
a less favourable development of the export of forest produccs
than before. This does not affect Sweden to quite the same ex-
tent as Finland, the Swedish exports being more diversified, but