Úr þjóðarbúskapnum - 01.06.1962, Blaðsíða 33

NATIONAL PRODUCT OF ICELAND
The national income and expenditure figures
for these years could, on the other hand, be
linked to the new estimates for the above men-
tioned four years and revised in the light of
the new information acquired. It was, there-
fore, decided to revise all the national accounts
series for the post-war period up to 1960 and
consider these as final, with the possible excep-
tion of the last year or two.
In a brief summary of the results of these
estimates, it would take too long to describe
the sources and methods in detail. Concep-
tually the estimates can be said to conform
almost exactly to the standard definitions
employed by the OECD and the United Na-
tions. Deviations exist only in so far as the
available data do not allow any closer appr-
oximation to the standard definitions.
The sources and methods can be roughly
outlined as follows. For the last four years,
1957—1960, the components of gross national
product and expenditure have been estimated
independently of one another. The main
sources are import and export statistics, in-
dustrial production statistics, a yearly census
of building activities, and central and local
government accounts, but along with these
various other statistics and information have
been employed. These data are fairly com-
prehensive and permit of reasonably reliable
estimates of the main components of GNP
and consequently of the aggregates. This mat-
erial had to be processed in many ways.
Quantities had to be multiplied by unit valu-
es, intermediate products to be subtracted,
certain input-output relations to be accounted,
for, mark-ups for duty and gross trade mar-
gins to be added and so on. A regards priv-
ate consumption a detailed statement of the
procedures is given in the lOth issue of this
periodical.
The system provides some opportunities for
cross-checking, although not nearly as much
as could be wished for. The most important
cross-check is provided by the above mention-
ed possibility of calculating the aggregates both
from the income side and from the expenditure
side for the years 1957—1960. National income
(net national product) as calculated from the
expenditure side is higher for all the four
years than the same aggregate calculated from
the income side. For the period as a whole
the discrepancy is about 11%, but for the first
year, 1957, the discrepancy is 9.5%. As the
expenditure approach is considered more
reliable, the results so obtained have been
used for the years 1957—1960. The problem of
linking the years prior to 1957 to these results
is solved by adding 10 per cent to the nat-
ional income figures as arrived at from the
income side for these years. This 10% increase
provides a tolerable link between 1956 and
1957, as well as between the four year period
1957—1960, on the one hand, and the preced-
ing period on the other. This kind of correct-
ion can not give an exact measure of the
absolute level of the national income, but
the continuity and the comparability of the
series should thereby be provided for. The
approximately 10—11 per cent difference
between the two sets of results is fairly
plausible. The calculations from the income
side are based on income tax statements of
individuals and firms. These are augmented
by various estimated differences behveen the
concepts of taxable income and national
income. But it is a widely recognized fact
that estimates based on tax returns tend to
be on the low side.
Structure and relationships
Of the five main tables following this article,
the first two are intended to show the struc-
tural relationships, while the latter three are
intended to show the trends. Figures one and
two exemplify the structural relationships for
two selected years at the beginning and the
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