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project management (VSF, 2017a). Arguably, the most notable activity of VSF is the function of certifying
professional project managers in collaboration with the IPMA (International Project Management
Association). This process has been taken place since 1997 and gone from strength to strength.
Currently, 1566 project managers have received certification on all of the four different IPMA levels (A,
B, C and D) (VSF, 2017b). The birth of project management as a profession in Iceland was also
consolidated by a post graduate study line/ course, Master of Project Management (MPM), established
in 2005. More than 300 project managers have graduated through the MPM programme (MPM, 2017).
The project management profession has been gaining an international momentum and Iceland has
followed along the same path. Ingason, Fridgeirsson & Jonasson (2019) conclude that project
management is on the verge of becoming an established profession in Iceland; a profession with a solid
theoretical knowledge base, best practice references, strong educational programs, academic research
activities and occupational interest groups. However, in spite of this success and the projectification of
the private and the public industries, the economic impact is more or less unknown.
“Success” is also a relative concept, as projects in Iceland, especially public projects, have frequently
come under scathing criticism and are subject to controversy and debate. Fridgeirsson (2015)
investigated public projects and project governance in Iceland and concluded that large projects have
serious cost overrun problems (9 out of 10 projects had cost overruns). In the study by Fridgeirsson
(2015), the Icelandic project governance framework is considered to be lacking behind when compared
with in countries like Norway and the UK. It is, therefore, an imperative to document information on
projects and their management (or lack thereof) not only in the light of their success, but also with
regard to how they have failed to pave the way for improvement.
Despite the small population (330.000 inhabitants), Iceland is a prosperous country with a GDP of
50,936 USD per capita in 2015, according to the UN, placing the country in 12th place in the world. In
2013, 78% of Iceland's export value and 59% of imports came from countries within the European Union
(Hagstofan, 2016). Economic growth is relatively very strong (7,2% GNP in 2016) and Iceland´s prospects
are generally considered favorable (Hagstofan, 2017).
As stated earlier, the economic impact of work done in projects is not fully clear. This is unfortunate, as
the monetary worth of projects as a percentage of the larger economy is an important metric to the
impact of project management for society. If the impact of projects on the economy is significant, it
should be instrumental for government and business leaders to master the profession of project
management and the importance of the project management profession should be reflected both in
governmental and industrial strategies.
The first serious attempt to outline the economic impact of projects was arguably carried out by Wald et
al (2015) and applied first to the German economy. The initial study of Andreas Wald and colleagues
provided a platform for studying the Icelandic projectification and the economic impact of projects. The
present study is intended to pursue the following objectives:
1. Investigate the relevance of projects and project management for Icelandic industries.
2. State the current economic impact of project related work.
3. Project the trend of the profession in the near future.
4. Describe an alternative method for projecting the trend in the future.

Methodology
With the aim to investigate the proportion of the Icelandic economy that is project based the authors
build partly on a method developed by Wald et al. (2015). In addition, a benchmark study among over