Læknablaðið - nóv. 2019, Blaðsíða 16

488 LÆKNAblaðið 2019/105
Introduction: Suicides are number 16 as a cause of death
worldwide. Causes are not always known, often associated with
depression or trauma. Suicide incidence has decreased world-
wide in the past three decades. The economic crisis of 2008 led
to an increase in many countries. Many confounding factors make
comparisons between countries difficult. This study assesses the
possible impact of economic crises in Iceland on suicide incidence.
Material and Methods: The work is based on suicide data from
1911 to 2017 and six economic crises from 1918 to 2008. The
incidence is calculated five and ten years before and after the index
year of each crisis. Possible crisis impact was assessed by app-
lying a quasi-Poisson model to the data. Variance can be greater
than model shows, so overdispersion was assessed. The evolution
over time is assessed by inspection of cumulative sum of squared
residuals (CUSUMSQ).
Results: Suicide incidence increased from 1930, beginning to
decline around 1990. Given a small population size there are wide
upwards incidence fluctuations, within and outside the crisis
periods. The crises of 1931 and 1948 showed an increase, wheras in
the others there is no change or a decrease. The sizes of deviations
from expected value are, for the whole period, in compliance with
the quasi-poisson model for counts.
Conclusion: There is no statistical correlation between the six
economic crises and suicide incidence in the Icelandic data. The
study is based on population incidence and does not preclude a
negative impact of economic crises on individuals.
Economic crises and incidence of suicide in Iceland 1911-2017
ENGLISH SUMMARY
1Humus Inc., 2Laekning Inc., 3Forensic Psychiatry and Security unit Landspitali University Hospital, 4Faculty of Economics, University of Iceland.
Key words: Economic crisis, Iceland, Suicide, century, quasi-Poisson model, time series.
Correspondence: Högni Óskarsson, hogni@humus.is
Högni Óskarsson1
Kristinn Tómasson2
Sigurður P. Pálsson3
Helgi Tómasson4
DOI: 10.17992/lbl.2019.11.255
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Heimildir
Barst til blaðsins 26. mars 2019, samþykkt til birtingar 17. september 2019.
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