Skógræktarritið - 15.05.2001, Side 132

Table 5. Model of the future - comparison between researchers and managers.
Researchers Managers
Potential ■ Growth potential in tourism ■ Growth potential in tourism
Development necds ■ Tourism ■ Hunting and wildemess- related ■ Service providers networks ■ Development of marketing ■ Recreation and landscape management ■ Subvention system in agriculture ■ Reindeer husbandry ■ Pasture rotation systems ■ Subsidy system ■ (Forestry) ■ Local processing of timber ■ Tourism ■ Network development ■ Nature tourism ■ Reindeer husbandry => importance for Sami culture
Development views ■ Positive: Tourism and reindeer husbandry developed together ■ Doubtful: Forestry ■ Climate change could worsen the growth conditions ■ Positivc: Tourism and reindeer husbandry ■ Effects of climate change will be mainly positive
Threats ■ Hunting and wildemess tourism => game populations and subsistence use for locals ■ Climate change effects => forestry ■ Building ■ Overgrazing ■ Cooling down of the climate ■ Changes in values ■ Forestry => biodiversity and nature conservation ■ Air-pollution ■ Climate change ■ Price development of timber => economic profítability of forestry => threat to employment
Information ■ Criteria for forestry ■ Effects of landscape ecological planning ■ Camivor - prey population dynamics ■ Point of view of reindeer husbandry ■ Relationship between forestry and reindeer husbandry ■ Effects of different forestry operations ■ Processing of timber ■ Local development programmes
tourism, i.e. tourists from outside
of Nordic region (table 5).
Development needs and possibil-
ities were seen especially in
sports hunting and wilderness
tourism. At the same time, these
were also seen as threats to game
populations and local communi-
ties if not managed carefully. The
creation of entrepreneurial net-
works and development of mar-
keting were seen as being neces-
sary for the development of
tourism. The system of agricul-
ture subsidies could be devel-
oped in the direction of recre-
ation and tourism. Also, changing
the system of subsidies in rein-
deer husbandry and developing
pasture rotation systems should
be used to solve the overgrazing
problem. The model emphasises
that if forestry is to be practised
on some scale, local processing
of timber should be developed.
The future of reindeer herding
was seen in a positive light if it is
developed together with tourism
with an eye on both ecological
and economic sustainability.
The future of large scale
forestry was perceived as rather
doubtful, first of all because of
the effects of predicted climate
change on ecosystems and the
production capacity of the
forests. According to the
researchers' climate change scenario,
there are several unpredictable
factors in the future if climatic
changes. The climate might get
colder or warmer, in which case,
the probability for serious biotic
damage caused by pest out-
breaks is great and this might
decrease the growth potential or
survival rate of forests. The pre-
sent threat is that predicted posi-
tive effects of climate change on
the growth of forests can lead to
unsustainable logging. The fear
is that the change will be
towards more anthropocentric,
utilitarian values. Ecological val-
ues might suffer if the value of
timberline areas for building
increases. Overgrazing by rein-
deer and sheep is a clear ecologi-
cal threat now. More information
is needed on the criteria for prac-
tising sustainable forestry, as
well as on long term effects of
landscape ecological planning.
To be able to develop hunting
tourism as well as to control
grazing animals, carnivore popu-
lation dynamics should be better
understood.
The managers' model of the future
According to the managers, the
greatest growth potential was
seen in tourism. The outlook for
the future of reindeer husbandry
was considered rather positive
because of its special cultural sig-
nificance and its importance for
local people, especially the Sami
people. This option does, howev-
er, require development work with
the tourism and handcraft indus-
tries. Networking needs to be
developed in nature tourism and
reindeer enterprises. Only a few
managers questioned the positive
effects of climate change, whereas
most of them believed that cli-
mate change will affect forest
growth positively. The overall pro-
duction of timber will increase
and the timberline will move fur-
ther north and up the slopes.
Forestry authorities believed in
the possibilities of forestry and
saw it as a necessary livelihood
in the timberline region.
Foresters saw it as one of the
employment possibilities, threat-
ened by international pressure
and low economical profitability.
130
SKÓGRÆKTARRITIÐ 2001 l.tbl.