Jökull - 01.01.2012, Síða 146

E. Magnússon et al.
Figure 9. The main subglacial drainage basins of Öræfajökull. Basin names are given in the legend. Larger
basins are attributed with the river name, the smaller ones with name of the glacier outlet. – Helstu jökulvatna-
svið Öræfajökuls.
Even though the outlet glaciers of Öræfajökull
may be responding in a similar way to current climatic
conditions, it is clear from their area and volume dis-
tribution (Figure 8b,c) that the future outlook is dif-
ferent from one outlet to another if further warming
occurs. A rise of the ELA up to 1300 m a.s.l. would
cut off large fractions of the accumulation areas on
glaciers like Morsárjökull and Skaftafellsjökull. Both
these glaciers have relatively large ice volume stored
at elevations between 1000 and 1300 m a.s.l. (Fig-
ure 8b,c), which might last for several decades, but
if ELA at 1300 m would prevail for much longer time
period, Morsárjökull would probably disappear com-
pletely and Skaftafellsjökull would turn into a small
mountain glacier on the north side of Öræfajökull.
A rise of the ELA up to 1300 m a.s.l. would have
much less effect on the AAR and consequently the
mass balance of Kvíárjökull. We would expect the
glacier margin to retreat significantly, but the main ice
mass within the caldera would remain intact, within
the accumulation area of the glacier. We would there-
fore have a significant source of ice feeding the outlet
glacier which might still stretch down into the valley
below after reaching a new equilibrium state.
144 JÖKULL No. 62, 2012