Læknablaðið - 01.07.2024, Blaðsíða 15

L ÆKNABL AÐIÐ 2024/110 359
R A N N S Ó K N
Heimildir
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INTRODUCTION: A large increase in new cancer cases is predicted worldwide, due to population growth,
ageing and increased cancer risk. The age distribution of the Icelandic population is different from the
other Nordic countries. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of new cancer cases in Iceland
and other Nordic countries, and cancer survivors in Iceland, up to the year 2040.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Information on cancer diagnoses was retrieved from The Icelandic Cancer
Registry and information on population projections from Statistics Iceland. Well known methods for
population projection were used to predict the number of new cancer cases in 2040, but adjusted to
consider Icelandic circumstances. It is also based on more recent data than is accessible elsewhere. Three
different methods were used to estimate the number of survivors in 2040 and are presented here for the
first time.
RESULTS: In 2040 the predicted yearly average number of new cancer cases in Iceland will be up to 2,903
[95% CI 2.841-2.956], a 57% increase compared with 2022. The increase is higher in Iceland than in other
Nordic countries (Norway 41%, Sweden 24%, Denmark 23%, Finland 21%). In 2022, the number of cancer
survivors was around 17,500 and is predicted to be between 24,500 and 31,000 in 2040.
CONCLUSION: The main reason for the predicted increase of cancer cases and survivors is population
trends, especially the ageing of the population. This expected increase in the number of cancer patients
and improved survival will increase the demand for healthcare.
doi 10.17992/lbl.2024.0708.800
Eva Maria Guðmundsdóttir1
Elinborg Olafsdottir1
Nanna Margret Kristinsdottir1
Alfheiður Haraldsdottir1
Kristjana Sigurdardottir1
Laufey Tryggvadottir1,3
Helgi Birgisson1,4
Sigridur Gunnarsdottir1,2,3
1Icelandic Cancer Registry, Icelandic Cancer
Society, 2Landspitali - The National University
Hospital of Iceland, 3University of Iceland
4Department of Surgical Sciences, Uppsala
University Hospital
Correspondence: Sigridur Gunnarsdottir,
sigridurg@krabb.is
Key words: cancer, population, prediction,
incidence, prevalence, survivors.
Prediction of cancer incidence and prevalence in Iceland up to the year 2040
– Icelandic Cancer Registry and Research Center