Árbók VFÍ/TFÍ - 01.06.2004, Page 219

TÖLFRÆÐILEGT ÁHÆTTUMAT
Á A/V-BRAUT
REYKJAVÍKURFLUGVALLAR
Burkni Helgason lauk stúdentsprófi frá Menntaskólanum í Reykjavík vorið 1998, B.Sc.-prófi í véla- og iðnaðarverkfræði
frá Hí vorið 2001 og M.Sc.-prófi haustið 2003.
Dr. Guðmundur R. Jónsson, prófessor við véla- og iðnaðarverkfræðiskor, útskrifaðist sem vélaverkfræðingur frá HÍ1981.
Hann lauk civ.ing.-prófi frá DTH í Danmörku 1983,Tekn.lic.-prófi í stærðfræðilegri tölfræði frá Háskólanum í Lundi 1990
og Tekn.Dr.-prófi frá sama skóla 1996 .
Abstract
Flight security is a research area of ever-increasing gravity in aviation. Risk assessment, qualitative and quantitative, are
valuable tools in enhancing safety in all aeronautical aspects.
This paper is centered on assessing the risk from fixed obstacles in the vicinity of Reykjavík Airport, and determining
whether the E-W runway meets the necessary ICAO criteria.Two different approaches are compared.The former approach
is based on a methodology that uses the so-called
Collision Risk Model for ILS Operations, CRM, presented in [1 j.The basis for this methodology are probability distributions
fitted to empirical landing data of aircraft.These distributions are used to assess the spatial probabilities that aircraft posi-
tions will coincide with those of fixed obstacles.
The original CRM uses distributions based on data collected in the USA, UK, Netherlands and W-Germany.These data were
not necessarily considered applicable to conditions in Reykjavík or other airports in lceland, and the CRM fails to incorpo-
rate correlations between deviations at seperate points in time.
For these reasons, it was considered natural to use a seperate approach alongside the CRM.This method uses the same
underlying model as the CRM, but different methods of calculation. Existing data from Reykjavík Airport was used to for-
mulate a new methodology, based on Time Series Analysis, and a new simulation system for the assessment. Results were
compared to the output from the CRM and existing standards issued by ICAO.
Ritrýndar vísindagreiar
2 1 7