Íslenska leiðin - 01.11.2003, Qupperneq 22

Íslenska leiðin - 01.11.2003, Qupperneq 22
consolidate its deployed forces but has had little success overcoming the political importance of maintaining alliance solidarity which required leaving forces in place. But now the drain on forces brought about by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has given consolidation arguments new weight. In this new circumstance, removal of the fighters at Keflavik looked like a doable proposition. That such action, especially if done unilaterally, would strain alliance solidarity, or even threaten to undo the bi-lateral agreement of 1951, now no longer seemed to matter as much in the Pentagon. The realization of direct and immediate threat to the North American continent also led to a shifting in command responsibilities in the US (but not NATO) command structure. Here too, Iceland's importance in US strategic thinking seemed to be greatly diminished. What, then, should Iceland do? Turn to Europe? A closer association with the EU and Europe for economic and cultural reasons may be in Iceland's interests or not, as Icelanders decide, but I don't think turning to Europe for security reasons is a good idea or even necessary. The EU, despite a military headquarters project in Brussels and the agonizingly slow birth of the Eurocorps, or whatever it will be called, is a very long way from providing security to anyone who isn't at the other end of a highway. Even ifthe relevant EU countries dropped out of NATO's military alliance altogether, they still would need to spend a lot more money than any have indicated they would on upgrading their forces. Development of a capability for strategic movement of significant forces by air or sea, for instance to defend Iceland, is a long way down the list of priorities. Why Iceland may not even need to think about turning to Europe for security is the real possibility that lessons are being learned in Washington. Going it alone in foreign policy is not only very expensive, it is likely too expensive. The US needs allies and that means paying attention first to those who already are allies. Perhaps it is mere coincidence but I think the decision not to remove the fighters, or rather the absence of a decision to remove them, is one of the early signs of a growing realization of the need for allies, large or small, in Washington. Unilateralism, it is becoming clear, has more costs than benefits. Whatever else they are, realists, imperialists, fundamentalists, cowboys, most of the people at the top in Washington are from the world of business. They can read a cost-benefit balance sheet. Sorting out how to proceed with one's security arrangements, whether one is the greatest power in the world or one of the two states without any military at all, is not easy in our world. No one has ever had the kind of power in so many different fields that the United States now has. Never before have so many countries, virtually every one, been so intimately affected by decisions made in almost any other part of the globe. Even North Korea, which has spent the last fifty-five years trying to ignore the rest of the world beyond its peninsula, finds it cannot do so. It worries us all but they too are trying to sort out just what their security policy should be. The direction of the future, once so clear in the Cold War in whose practices and institutions so many leaders of today were nurtured, is now far less evident. Long range plans or commitments may not be the best idea just now. It may not be a heroic approach to foreign policy, but I think just muddling through, not making any grand departures, has a lot to be said for it. Haraldur Böðvarsson hf,
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