Saga - 2009, Blaðsíða 74

arárin 1968–1969 vel talist til kreppu þegar haft er í huga hversu
niðursveiflan var snörp og djúp og atvinnuleysi mikið, en það var -
aði í hartnær þrjú ár.
Aðeins tvisvar hefur landsframleiðsla dregist saman um meira
en 10%, þ.e. á árunum 1882–1887 og 1914–1918. Stærsta kreppan
sem komið hefur var á árum fyrri heimsstyrjaldar, en hún var
reyndar hluti lengstu haglægðar í sögu Íslands á síðari tímum og
stóð frá 1914 til 1923. kreppan mikla á fjórða áratug aldarinnar er
samt í hugum margra sú mesta sem riðið hefur yfir landið, en hún
hafði ekki í för með sér mikinn samdrátt í efnahagslífi. Atvinnuleysi
og fátækt voru á hinn bóginn útbreidd og hún var sú efnahags-
kreppa sem hafði víðtækust áhrif í efnahags- og stjórnmálum.
Abstract
guðmundur j óns son
I C e L A N D ’ S e C o N o M I C C R I S e S , 1 8 7 0 – 2 0 0 0
Iceland has suffered more from the financial crisis of 2008 than most other
european countries. What is Iceland’s experience of serious economic crises in
recent history, what were their sources, and how has the nation responded to
them? Is Iceland’s economy more volatile than that of other countries? This
article analyses Icelandic depressions in an international context from 1870 to the
end of the 20th century, tracing the course of each slump and seeking to explain
its causes and consequences. With a depression defined as a slump lasting over
three years, six instances are identified, i.e. 1882–1887, 1914–1923, 1930–1932,
1949–1952, 1968–1970 and 1988–1992. Deepest of these was the de press ion dur-
ing the First World War, although over the long term the Great Depression of the
1930s had a greater political and economic impact.
While the emphasis is on the deepest economic troughs, the article discusses
some other aspects of business cycles during the period examined. The study
supports economists‘ findings that the Icelandic economy is subject to unusually
pronounced economic fluctuations. A comparison with the United States and
twelve other Western european countries shows that economic volatility, meas-
ured as the standard deviation of GDP growth, was greater in Iceland than most
of the other countries for the periods of 1870–1913 and 1920–1939, and greatest of
any of these countries for the period of 1945–2000.
guðmundur jónsson74
Saga vor 2009 UMBROT NOTA-1:Saga haust 2004 - NOTA 5.5.2009 15:52 Page 74