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Jökull - 01.01.2021, Qupperneq 31

Jökull - 01.01.2021, Qupperneq 31
The 1918 Katla eruption Isopach map The isopach map, based on all available data (Figures 1–4) and our reconstructed locations and thicknesses inside the caldera, is shown in Figures 5 and 6, with the latter being a blowup covering Mýrdalsjökull. Fig- ure 6 shows the isopachs and the estimated locations of fallout and calculated thicknesses of tephra at these sites. The map in Figure 5 shows that no single direc- tion was dominant in the distribution of tephra from this eruption. Three dispersal axes are most promi- nent, directed towards north, northeast and southeast. Three other axes are indicated by the map, towards south, west and northwest. The 1 cm isopach extends about 100 km to the north but less than 10 km to the southwest. Details of how dispersal of tephra varied with time during the eruption are given in Larsen et al. (this issue). Volume of airborne tephra in 1918 The bulk volume of the tephra carried by the plume and forming the tephra layer has been estimated by: (1) direct integration of the map for contours >0.5 cm, using Surfer (Golden Software) after generating the map using the kriging option. (2) Plotting the logarithm of thickness against the square root of the area within each isopach and integrating the curve as four exponential segments, following Fierstein and Nathenson (1992) (Figure 7a). (3) By integrating be- tween successive contours we obtain 10 exponential segments. In all cases, the fallout outside the outer- most, 0.5 cm isopach, was estimated by extrapolat- ing the exponential curve obtained for the interval be- tween 1 and 0.5 cm out to infinity. The results on volume by the three methods (Table 1) all lie in the range 0.9 to 1.0 km3. They are not fully independent, as the same method is used in all cases for the region outside the 0.5 cm contour. Integration of the map also shows that about half of the total volume of airborne tephra (0.45 – 0.50 km3) fell on Mýrdalsjökull. The uncertainty of the volume estimate of tephra that fell on Mýrdalsjökull can be crudely estimated. The tephra thickness near the vents on Figure 2a has an estimated uncertainty of 40%, while thick- nesses for the northern part (Sléttjökull) are better constrained due to the limited effect of post 1918 ice flow on layer thickness, as shown above. By using uncertainties of 40% for the caldera and 20% for the northern part of the glacier, the resulting combined error for the glacier part is 0.15 km3. For the areas outside the glacier, the large number of survey points results in lower uncertainty, which we cautiously as- sume to be no more than 20%, or 0.1 km3. By us- ing the mean of the three values in Table 1 as the best available estimate for the tephra layer we obtain a rounded off volume of 0.95±0.25 km3. Table 1. Estimates of the bulk volume of the Katla 1918 tephra layer. – Rúmmál gjóskulagsins frá 1918. Thickness Map Exponential method Exponential method integration1 4 segments2 10 segments2 (cm) km3 km3 km3 <0.5 (0.16) 0.16 0.16 >0.5 0.74 0.84 0.87 Total 0.90 1.00 0.93 1Integration made using Surfer (Golden Software) for thickness >0.5 cm and exp. integration results for <0.5 cm. 2The fallout thickness as function of the square root of area is shown on Figure 7a. Fallout in the ocean to the south and southeast of the volcano is estimated as about 10% of the total, a value obtained from integration of the ocean part of the map in Figure 5. We estimate the total mass of the layer using a density of 1200 kg/m3, a rea- sonable number for basaltic, fine grained, and to a large degree phreatomagmatic tephra (Oddsson et al., 2012). The result is a tephra layer deposit mass of 1.15±0.30×1012 kg (about 0.4±0.1 km3 DRE). It should be noted that the volume/mass obtained here is far from being the total amount of material pro- duced in the eruption, as water-transported pyroclasts are not included. This material may have been of com- parable quantity (Tómasson, 1996; Larsen, 2000) as that of the airborne tephra. Moreover, any material deposited at the eruption site, forming a subglacial ed- ifice, is not included. JÖKULL No. 71, 2021 29
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