Le Nord : revue internationale des Pays de Nord - 01.06.1941, Page 105

SWEDISH TRADE POLICY IN 'WARTIME
99
In certain quarters it has been asserted that the blockade
has had another unfavourable consequence to us, viz. a shifting
of the composition of our exports in favour of raw materials
and in disfavour of finished products. This assertion is so far
correct as our exports to the West consist of finished goods
to a far greater extent than our exports to the South. On the
other hand, it must be borne in mind that in 1940 our exports
within the blockade developed in a manner relatively favourable
to the more finished goods. It is an important factor in this con-
nection that the proportion of the Swedish-German clearing
constituted by iron ore has declined considerably during 1940
while the proportion constituted by articles of wood, paper pulp,
paper, factory products, and machinery has been considerably
increased.
It will have appeared from the above survey that during
1940 our foreign trade diminished quantitatively and that it lost
ground as regards prices. This unfavourable trend will probably
become even more pronounced during 1941. In a lecture last
October I permitted myself the pessimistic prognostication that
in spite of all endeavours to increase trade within the blockade
we should have to expect a diminution by more than one half
of our export figures during the period before the war. I am
afraid that this gloomy prophecy will prove correct. As long
as the war goes on, our foreign trade will no doubt continue
to diminish.
The juture.
“As long as the war goes on” — we here touch on a question
which many people are at present asking: “What will happen
to our foreign trade after the war?” Although it is at present
extremely difficult to find anything to go on for an estimate
of what the future will bring on the long view, discussions of
the peace conditions for trade, especially foreign trade, have
already become general, not merely in the belligerent countries,
but in neutral Sweden as well. One may indeed entertain some
doubts as to the practical value of such prognostications about
economic world orders which are yet on the knees of the gods.
These problems are, however, of such importance to Sweden’s
foreign trade, and have here and elsewhere been presented with